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Thursday, 17 October 2024
Read full issueWHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY
Good morning, friends. It’s a calm news day as we slide into the weekend, but there’s news of a Manara Minerals mining acquisition making waves along with some interesting news emerging from Morocco as it prepares to host the FIFA World Cup in 2030.
THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- IEA releases this year’s World Energy Outlook report: The world is on the cusp of a new era of electricity, with fossil fuel demand expected to peak by the end of this decade, according to a new energy outlook report (pdf) from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The shift could result in surplus oil and gas supplies, potentially driving more investments into green energy. A high level of uncertainty due to ongoing conflicts in the oil and gas-producing regions of the Middle East and Russia still remains, as well as upcoming elections in countries that account for half of global energy demand.
Renewables are making strides: The agency reported a record high level of clean energy coming online globally last year, with over 560 GW of renewable power capacity added. Around USD 2 tn is expected to be invested in clean energy in 2024, nearly double the amount invested in fossil fuels. The IEA's scenario based on current government policies predicts that global oil demand will peak before 2030 at just under 102 mn barrels per day (mb/d) and then decline to 2023 levels of 99 mb/d by 2035, driven largely by increased EV use.
^^ We will have a deeper dive into the report next week in the news well.
The story was picked up widely in the international press: Reuters | AP | Bloomberg | The New York Times | Financial Times | The Wall Street Journal | The Washington Post | The Guardian | The Independent | Axios
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Saudi and Egyptian private sector players have pledged to make investments worth USD 15 bn in Egypt across renewable energy, industry, real estate, tourism, and technology sectors, Saudi-Egyptian Business Council head Bandar Al Amri told Al Arabiya Business, without naming any of the potential investors. The investments were pending the Promotion and Mutual Protection of Investments agreement was signed on Tuesday in Cairo during Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman’s meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.
#2- A step forward for the Baltic Eagle wind farm: Spain’s utilities Iberdrola and UAE’s Masdar have completed the installation of all 50 wind turbines at the Baltic Eagle offshore wind farm in the German Baltic Sea, according to a statement. The turbines — supplied by wind energy company Vestas — have a total capacity of 476 MW.
REFRESHER- Masdar reached a financial close on EUR 488 mn in funding to secure its 49% acquisition of the Baltic Eagle wind farm in March. The project — which is slated to kick off initial operations by the end of 2024 — will produce up to 1.9 TWh of clean energy once it achieves full capacity, providing Germany with renewable power to some 475k homes and offsetting c. 800k tons of carbon emissions annually. 100% of Baltic Eagle’s production volume has already been sold via long-term offtake agreements.
#3- France is concerned about incoming EU emission fines: France wants more “flexibility” with the implementation of the EU’s incoming stricter car emissions next year which could lead to over EUR 10 bn in fines for European carmakers like Renault and Volkswagen, Financial Times reports. “I cannot see why there would be penalties when huge efforts [in investment] have been made [by carmakers],” France’s economy minister Antoine Armand told auto industry executives at the Paris Motor Show earlier this week. Brussels is maintaining its plan to ban the sale of new fossil fuel-powered cars by 2035 despite carmakers’ pressure, FT writes, citing internal EU documents.
What’s on the table? It’s unclear whether France is pushing to scrap the penalties, alter the criteria involved in implementing fines, or postpone the deadline for implementing the emissions tax.
But Europe’s EV factories are struggling: German carmaker Audi's EV factory in Brussels may close after failing to secure a viable investor, Bloomberg reports. Despite interest from 26 parties, none offered a “viable and sustainable concept” for the factory’s future, Audi COO Gerd Walker said. The factory, hindered by high costs and logistical challenges, has struggled with poor demand for the electric SUV produced there.
#4- Countries’ biodiversity pledges are severely lacking: More than 80% of countries haven't submitted their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) ahead of Cop16 summit in Columbia, according to findings by Carbon Brief and The Guardian. Only 25 countries have met the deadline to submit new NBSAPs by COP16, leaving 170 nations lagging. Notably, only five of the 17 megadiverse countries, which harbor about 70% of global biodiversity, have submitted their plans. These include Australia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Mexico. Significant nations like Brazil and India have cited complex governance and funding issues as reasons for their delays but are still expected to have their plans for the summit.
ALSO- Banks and asset managers have funneled at least USD 77 bn into companies linked to deforestation over the past two years, according to a recent study (pdf) by the Forests & Finance Coalition. The findings come as global negotiators prepare to meet in Colombia for the United Nations Biodiversity Conference, COP16, to assess progress on the Global Biodiversity Framework signed in 2022, which aims to halt and reverse nature loss by the end of the decade. Many banks are tuning in for the first time as biodiversity finances show profit promise and amid calls for more investments.
The culprits: Brazilian banks like Banco do Brasil were the top lenders to these "forest-risk" companies, followed by European banks like Banco Santander, Rabobank, and BNP Paribas, while top-risk industries included beef, palm oil, pulp, paper, rubber, soy, and timber, the report said.
THE SCORECARD-
The Middle East saw an 18% y-o-y decline in sustainable bond issuance to USD 16.7 bn in the first nine months of 2024, according to a Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global Ratings report (pdf). The decrease follows a period of high issuance levels spurred by the COP28 summit in 2023. Despite government initiatives and increasing alignment with sustainability strategies, the region's sustainable bond market faces challenges due to economic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and the early stages of ESG reporting transparency. The report defines sustainable bonds to include green, social, sustainability, and sustainability-linked bonds.
The breakdown: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are still leading the region with 60% share of sustainable bond issuance, but Qatar and Turkey also saw a rise in issuances. The overall volume of sustainable sukuk in the Middle East remained stable at USD 6.1 bn, and their share within the region's sustainable bond market increased to close to 35%-40%.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Egypt will host the World Urban Forum from Monday, 4 November to Friday, 8 November in Cairo. The forum, established by the UN and one of its largest non-legislative events, will center around the effect of rapid urbanization on communities, economies, climate change, and policies and will bring together government representatives, academics, business people, urban planners, and more.
South Africa will host the Critical Mineral Africa Summit from Wednesday, 6 November to Thursday, 7 November, in Cape Town. The summit aims to attract critical minerals investment to the continent and will be held alongside African Energy Week. The summit will be held in partnership with the Southern African-German Chamber of Commerce Partners representing Germany’s increasing investments in southern Africa.
Azerbaijan will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties (COP29) from Monday, 11 November to Friday, 22 November in Baku. The annual conference brings together governments, world leaders, and other stakeholders to advance the Paris Agreement and negotiate ways to fight climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s objective is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.