Keynote interview with Hassan El Khatib: One year later
Patrick Fitzpatrick [P.F]: Ladies and gentlemen, if you could please filter into the room. It is time for our "one year later" interview with His Excellency Hassan El Khatib, the Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade of Egypt. Minister, it has been 12 months since you were last on this stage. You appeared at that time very much immediately after your appointment. You were still figuring things out, and yet you arrived with a clear plan and, if you'll pardon my language, a no-bullshit approach to the interview. You spoke candidly, you spoke freely, and you did so again when we chatted last Thursday to prepare for this. I would like to start by asking you: 12 months later, what have you learned that you didn't know a year ago on our stage?Hassan El Khatib [H.K]: Still... Good morning, I guess.P.F: Still good morning. It's been a long day for you, I know. And we're incredibly grateful that you came.H.K: So good morning. It's a pleasure to be here. I cannot imagine it's a year already. To be honest, it feels like 4 years, but anyway, it passed very, very quickly. No, I think I would say, reflecting on a year, I don't remember what I said, but I will say what I believe. I think walking into the job, I knew what needed to happen. I think…I still have this small sheet of paper that I started with as my target, as my objective, which I can repeat. I don't know whether it will tally with what I said last year or not.What Egypt needs is a business environment that is conducive for the private sector to lead the economic narrative for Egypt.Through clear, predictable, transparent policies. And I think what I said, and I've been saying this for many years prior to taking the post, is that we need to talk about a proper monetary policy — which we have; it's working, numbers are telling — a fiscal policy, trade policy, role of the state policy. And we need to take more …These are the four policies that we started with, but today we talk about land allocation policy, the need for an energy policy, and of course we need to talk about national projects for 10 years or 20 years for the Ministry of Investment and other ministries to be able to predict.The challenges that I probably outlined earlier are more clear in my mind.I know the situation much better, probably than what I presented in October. But I can tell you today that I see a path where I want to see Egypt as one of the most competitive destinations to attract FDI, for investors to come invest for the next 10-20 years. And that’s probably what we will cover today. P.F: When we spoke on Thursday, you said that the way forward is rooted in digital transformation. It sort of struck me that a year ago you had the plan and the ideas. The biggest difference I see in you, as somebody who writes about you most days, is that you figured out how these pieces of the pipe fit together, how the puzzle fits together. And you think now the answer is digital. How does that work?H.K: That's one of the conclusions after 15 months in the job. Let's try to look at one of the challenges that we outlined last year. I think we talked about a target of an effective tax rate, that we have a parallel system of fees and levies that are put. At the time I mentioned probably 60 agencies. I think today I can exactly tell you how many agencies, and probably a number much bigger which I'm not going to reveal today.P.F: Okay.H.K: But there are 96 agencies. P.F: 96?H.K: Yes. So the business community who are here today are subjected to many of those fees and levies on a daily basis. And, I think, the contemplated vision as I see it today is clear: We do not want the private sector — any company in Egypt — to deal with 96 agencies. What we would want is for the business community to deal — in the short term — with five agencies. Of course, the Ministry of Finance is the right agency to that effect. But I think GAFI for that matter, the General Authority for Investment; when we talk industry, the Industrial Development Authority; when we talk tourism, Tourism Development Authority; and of course NUCA [The New Urban Communities Authority]; and of course the telecom sector. So what we would want to see is that we want to channel the large number of fees and levies that are put by these tens of agencies through these five agencies. But this is in the short term.The longer-term vision is that all of these will be put on a digital platform. And the journey is not something that I'm promising; we started. When I realized this, and we had the meeting last year in October, I realized this is tough to deal with too many of these agencies. And again, we need to understand the logic: They depend on these fees and levies for their budgets. And that's a reality. But what we decided to do is that I decided to activate an approval or at least a directive by the prime minister that was there almost for two years, where we wanted to have what we call a permits platform. So in November-December last year, I took that directive from the president. I told him I would want to take this into action. And this is what we call the temporary permits platform, which we launched in June.P.F: So the platform is temporary, not a platform for temporary permits, but a temporary platform? H.K: This is important because I have to say temporary because it's not the state-of-the-art platform. This is not what we aspire to. This is an aggregation; it’s a unifying platform that connects the Industrial Development Authority, the Tourism Development Authority through URL.This is not the state-of-the-art of what we want, but we wanted to go through connecting 41 agencies, offering 389 permits online. That in itself is a transformation. The discussions with these agencies is that for each service, you need to have a description: What is the service? What are the fees and for what? This is a process that needs to happen if you want to include everything on the fully digitized platform which we can talk about now. But since I've taken that decision in June, we started with 389 permits fully digitized. Today, we add more services every day. Today we offer 460 services on that platform.P.F: Okay.H.K: Similarly, if we continue with that theme — just to give the audience the direction — I started thinking, "Okay, but this is temporary. We need to do something different." So I got another directive from the president and the prime minister to do a state-of-the-art digital platform for Egypt that can take everything from establishing a company, the permits, and ongoing needs of the businesses: approvals and other things. So we have the full fledged scope of this. We have this mandate. What I can tell you is that we are in the final negotiations. I hope within three to four weeks I sign this. But this is not as easy.P.F: Okay.H.K: The scope is actually threefold. One, you need to have a digital platform that is state-of-the-art, that connects seamlessly with the different agencies of the state. But if you code — and I have my friends here from the IT sector that would know this well—if you code the existing processes, you've done nothing. If you code today the journey of any of you as an investor that wants to establish a business, then we've done no transformation.P.F: Nothing has changed.H.K: So we engaged early on in the year, a consultant on a sample [of] four activities. And I can quote, these are the two cases that are on top of my mind now: the journey of an investor today to do a factory for a ready-made garment. The processes he or she has to go through are 24 processes. And in many of which, you will have to pay for a commercial register, the same [register] for multiple times. If you want to establish a hotel today in Egypt, it has 34 processes, and the exact number of commercial registers that you have to pay and get through that process is actually 22. It's the same commercial register.But the beauty about that exercise, and that's what we directed the consultant, is we need to ask the question: Why do we need this process in the first place? It's very obvious. If you have a digital commercial register, you don't have to repeat it. You don't have to pay for it several times. And in the two cases, the irony is we ended up with nine processes.Nine. That's what you need to code. So the question became, okay, how many activities do we need to model or we need to study and do the re-engineering of these processes? It’s 275 activities. And that's why the scope that I should sign hopefully in three to four weeks is on the coding side and also in the re-engineering of the journey of an investor in each and every activity. This is really due diligence. This is deep due diligence.And the third element that is very important on this platform is that it has to include all the fees and levies that are put by the 96 agencies. This is transformational. This will change the way we do business. This will enhance our competitiveness in the Doing Business report, which is now Business Ready, because the whole world is shifting digitally. And we cannot move one step at a time with where we are. The leap will have to happen through digital transformation.P.F: I'd like to shift now to FDI. You are chasing more inward investment in a shrinking global market. You've been to the Czech Republic, China, Singapore, Japan, Germany, Russia, India, Spain — and that's just in the last few months. Where is the most economically significant interest coming from and what is the pitch right now?H.K: I think I will answer in a different way. I would want to balance my relationships. I want to balance my FDI, my trade relationships. And you'll be surprised that I will link it to trade, because I think the whole world today is linking trade and investments. And that's how I want to shape the answer to that question. Historically, our largest trading partners are Europe, the Middle East, and of course, China and Asia. I would want to maintain the same balance. I do not want to see concentration in a different direction. In 10 days, we're going to the EU; we have the EU-Egypt summit. And my contemplated vision of the relationship, we have a trade deficit with Europe. It's shrinking. That's important. It's going down. Today, it's around $8 billion. It used to be much higher than this.But what I would want to talk to our partners in Europe about is that it's a win-win proposition today. We would want to equalize the trade, not through tariffs but through investments. And that's why one of the things that are today that are combined in trade is that you have to have these trade facilitation and investment facilitation agreements, what we call SIFA: Sustainable Investment Framework Agreement. So I got the approval from the cabinet that we take the relationship with Europe to a different level. And I spoke to the trade commissioner on my last trip to Brussels, and I think this will be hopefully announced and we will put the guidelines. This could be a process of two years. But the whole idea about this is that, simply you put a path for transparency, for the sharing of information that links trade and investments. What I would want to see is I would want this comfort for the investors in Europe to come and localize. I think that relationship is an example of what we want to see. Europe needs Egypt as much as we need their investments. Really. Europe today, [their] cost of production is, in my view, in my humble opinion, I’m sorry… very expensive. Cost of labor, cost of energy today they are paying literally four times what the US is paying for energy. We are across from Europe. If you have a ro-ro line today, in less than two days, you are in Europe. We have the right infrastructure to bring these investments into Egypt and to localize. Cost of labor is very attractive. You have the engineering talents. You have the connectivity between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean; it's actually working. So what we need is these investments, and they need comfort. So these are the dialogues that I would want to have.Similarly, when I visited China, it's the same. We cannot continue. The China trade deficit is $15 billion. And by the way, China's trade relationship with the rest of the world is always in their favor. That's why you see these tariffs that are coming up. We have to acknowledge, and again I do not want to generalize, China built capacities that are today way above the world's needs. I can give you two sectors. Just solar panels. Today, China has production capability... the output can get to 1,000 gigawatts per year. 1,000 gigawatts per year. The whole world's new consumption installed last year was 500 to 600. They actually are half of this. So they have this abundance. So, whether you call this subsidy… there is an embedded subsidy in that. There is again in many cases dumping practices. So, we need to be very careful about this. And that's the message. I told the Chinese: if you need to come to Egypt, we're open, but you need to deepen your local manufacturing. Because why? Europe is telling us very clearly, "We are not going to allow anyone to use you as a backdoor to Europe." So, it's getting very complicated. But what I can tell you is that I'm having these very open, honest discussions with everyone. We need to make sure that we have equitable trade balances — trade relationships — through investments and trade. That's how I see it. So I would want to balance the relationship, but we're seeing interest from these three continents as we speak today.P.F: So we are open to trade and investment at the same time as other people who are closing. You spoke last year about five sectors where we would "determine where to play and how to win." And I love that line — where to play and how to win. You've since identified five broad priorities, but when we were talking on Thursday, you broke that down into "ready to promote" vs. "ambitious bets." What does the sectoral priority list look like? Can you unpack that for us, this "ready to promote" vs. "ambitious bets"?H.K: What I probably mentioned to you is my early contemplations of what I see in the market. What we’ve done is that we had the World Bank working with us to deliver an FDI strategy, which was delivered towards mid-December, and we've been working with them to finalize the document. The document talks about these "ready to promote" sectors and, of course, the "ambitious sectors." I don't have the sectors on top of my head, but you have the list I gave you. But you can quiz me on this: but it's tourism, it’s IT, it's again intermediate industries, it's agricultural products. These sectors that we can see really a lot of interest [in]. Of course, textiles. On that sector today you have a pipeline of a lot of investors coming and interested in that field. And these sectors today are very obvious winners for Egypt. If you take ready-made garments today, the cost of production in Egypt is literally 20% of that in Turkey. Turkey exports ready-made garments of $30 billion. Our total exports in that field is literally $2 to $3 billion.P.F: $2 to $3.H.K: Again, I put targets like any of you in the private sector. If I want to capture... I think the easy target for us on that sector alone should be $12 to $15 billion, because we're seeing that interest from not only the Turkish companies which are already in Egypt, but you're seeing that from the Chinese and other different countries around the world.The intermediate industries today, despite the fact that we don't have… in terms of the automotive industry, we don’t have a large OEM [Original Equipment Manufacturer]. But in the wire harnessing business, for example, we have the "who's who" of that industry globally already in Egypt. This is a labor-intensive part of the feeder industry and the automotive, and we're seeing more. On the automotive, we're looking into a strategy. So already, on the automotive development program that we revised, we have four companies signing up for that. That will take production much higher than what they are today. And we're still looking for one of those, or a new company to be the large OEM to pull the whole market. Of course, tourism is very clear and obvious. But, again the reality today, the challenge of what we're trying to do today is that we want... on these ready-to-promote sectors — and this is work that’s ongoing. We need to talk concrete numbers. Let's take tourism. What I want in tourism is to have a map for Egypt and you say, "We are [here] today, and we know the numbers, and this is where we want to be in 2030 and, of course, 2040. And these are the locations, these are the new destinations, and these are the rooms that we need.” But not only this. I want to take the land, each piece of land and take the pre-approval for these opportunities. That will cut automatically. So, the investor will come, these projects are approved from [high up] ... of course, you have the infrastructure that is available. You don't have to go and knock the door [of] many agencies for the utilities, the water, the electricity...P.F: It’s on the shelf. You take it off.H.K: Exactly. So, we're starting the pilot that we agreed to do is actually tourism. We agreed about this with the cabinet last week, that we will do this map for tourism, and then we'll start with a new sector. But more importantly, our holistic approach on these sectoral deep dives — which by the way — we want to engage international players. We've done the 13 sectors with the World Bank. Today, I'm asking some of the international IFIs to help us with the deep dive. Tourism is not about hotels only. It's about the ecosystem that connects. It's from the airport, from transportation, utilities, services, and so on. That's what we want to do for each and every sector on these lists.P.F: When we talked last week, you said you would be "unhappy with 25% annual export growth," that you'd like to see it be two, two and a half, three, four times that level within three years. And you used an interesting analogy comparing 2004 to 2008 to today. Can you explain to our guests today how you see getting from 25% growth today to three, four, five times that number three or four years down the road?H.K: You are talking FDI?P.F: FDI and exports together. H.K: So, I do not know if I mentioned this last year but what we want to build — and I talk "we" because the economic team and a wide number of ministers, we talk about this — is that we need to get to growth in GDP that is sustainable and higher. The only plug factor here is the FDI, local investments and foreign direct investments. What we see today is that the historical numbers of FDI range between $8 to $10 billion. That’s the historical. But there is an opportunity for Egypt in this time to attract more.And again, I have to put between brackets: this is not easy. This is challenging because the global FDI numbers are actually in decline for the last couple of years, around 11 to 12% decline. Having said that, and the challenge on this and I will come to the numbers is that we need to be seen as the most competitive destination. It's all about structural reform. Our ability to deliver our structural reform as fast as possible will get us to the numbers. 20-30% increase in our FDI, I think we're already achieving this year. The three-quarters numbers are around $9.8 billion. So I think we will get to $12 billion. From what I see, I was visiting the SCZone over the weekend, and if you look at the investments that are being put over the last three to four years, we're talking almost $10 billion on that area alone. So the reality, there is an influx.But what I would want to see with the proper mapping of these sectors again ... if you take the numbers, dissect them by sector. Tourism, between now and 2030, if we target $30 billion to attract, it's not a big number. If you take this in renewable energy, if you take it sectoral, you can see. Because today the challenge is: Where is the opportunity? The journey of the investor to get a hotel today is a very lengthy process. So that's what we want to change.What we want to see is a hike up in FDI because we deserve it, if we do the accelerated reforms that we're talking about. And that is what will get us to 6 to 7% sustainable growth. This is where eventually... all of what we're talking about is why we do this. Because after 3-4 years of high inflation, the question comes to every individual in Egypt. We work for the people of Egypt. It's inflation. The only thing that will matter at a certain point of time is that they feel the economic results in their pockets, that the pound can buy more; their salaries are increasing. And that's what we want to do. You need to accelerate the growth in GDP — that’s what matters. And what I ask, again the private sector… Salaries are increasing. Most of the industrial manufacturing companies are actually reaching capacity today; they are expanding. So with the very few things that we've done over a year, the whole team, there is a very good momentum. But we need to continue that momentum.P.F: Speaking of momentum, we have three minutes because I’ve made you a hard promise to get you off the stage at 11:30. I'm going to ask you questions in rapid succession. You have one sentence for each. It’s gonna be a challenge for us both. Privatization: where does it stand in one sentence? What can we expect of it this year?H.K: It's still on top of the agenda. It's the one element that we need to go faster. One thing we've done is the SOE [State-Owned Enterprise] unit, which we finalized the law in the summer. We are hiring for it. And why do I talk about this unit, is because this unit is going to be the vetting unit: which companies to move to the divestiture unit, which companies to go to the Sovereign Wealth Fund. The same thesis I gave to the Sovereign Wealth Fund is what I'm upholding: it’s again maximizing the return on these assets for the Egyptian people. It's the future generation fund for Egypt.P.F: One year ago, we had an average customs clearance time of 14 days. You said you wanted to bring it down by half. A few people laughed. It's 5.8 days today. Can you get to two before the end of the year?H.K: Yes, we will get to two days by the end of the year. I know the measures. I think we're on it.P.F: And beyond that?H.K: I'm not going to settle for two days. The target has to be hours. With the risk management system that we're enacting, with the joint work that we're doing, with customs and the Ministry of Finance, the momentum is there.The boldest decisions are already behind us. Today we know about the exact measures that we’re talking about, the electronic bill of lading, what matters today…. When I mentioned this it was important to set a target for the 27 agencies, this It's not only the work of my ministry; it's the work of 27 agencies. When you abolish holidays... historically, forever we've been taking Friday and Saturday off. Forever we've been working literally less than 2,000 hours. Today we're working 4,000 hours. Friday is still short in the efficiency — but that's historical. But why? I follow every weekend. I follow on these things every weekend. And the issue, when it comes to Friday, is not the government. Actually, when I visited on Saturday, they complained that the private sector companies are not coming. That's the issue. So now we need the private sector.P.F: They don’t want to be there on Fridays or Saturdays.H.K: Yes. P.F: All right. It's on us. Minister, will you come back next year and do this again?H.K: Sure. If you invite me and if I'm still around.P.F: We will invite you. Minister, thank you so much for your time today.H.K: A pleasure. Thank you very much.
Wednesday, 29 October 2025