Growth projections

We’re still a A+ for Fitch: Ratings agency Fitch affirmed the Kingdom’s credit rating of A+ on the back of a solid fiscal position and strong external balance sheet, including a positive debt-to-GDP ratio and strong sovereign net foreign assets, it said in a statement yesterday. It left its outlook on Saudi at “stable.”Driving the decision: Fitch said the “government’s debt-to-GDP [ratio] and sovereign net foreign assets are considerably stronger than both the A and AA medians.” It also cited “significant fiscal buffers” in deposits and other public sector assets.The weak points: The ratings agency said “oil dependence, low World Bank governance indicators and vulnerability to geopolitical shocks remain relative weaknesses.” Still, governance is improving as policymakers push ahead with social and economic reforms and cabinet works to strengthen the effectiveness of state agencies and institutions. We’re still very dependent on oil, Fitch writes (shocking, we know). The agency’s forecast sees oil revenues accounting for c. 60% the state’s income in FY 2024-2025. Non-oil, private-sector GDP will grow at a 4.5% clip in 2024-2025, it said, down a bit from c. 5% in the last fiscal year. Driving growth: continued investment by the government, reforms, and gradually lower interest rates. Strong credit growth, booming retail and tourism, and rising employment will be factors, it said. Rising spending on gigaprojects could be a medium-term risk: Rising government spending outside the budget as part of its Vision 2030 and a possible higher debt of state-owned and government-related entities could be a medium-term risk to to the Kingdom's balance sheet, Fitch said. “However, leverage is currently low across the public sector and investments may bring returns” by driving private-sector crowth and creating new jobs, it added.

Slower economic growth this year: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its 2024 forecast for the Kingdom’s GDP growth on the back of lower oil production, pointing to the combined effects of lower oil prices and production cuts, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook Update (pdf) yesterday. It expects the economy to grow by 2.7% this year, down from October’s projections of 4.0%.The IMF also slashed its estimate of how much the economy grew last year, penciling in a contraction of 1.1% after originally forecasting growth of 0.8% in October. This markets the sharpest contractions of the past two decades, according to Bloomberg. That puts the treasury on track to run fiscal deficits through at least 2026, the business information service writes, as Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman pushes ahead with aggressive investment plans. Not in line with what the government is thinking: The Finance Ministry is targeting GDP growth of 4.4% in its budget for the next fiscal year, Finance Minister Mohamed Al Jadaan said last month.THE KEY- Despite the downward revision, the IMF expects non-oil growth to “remain robust,”according to the report. The forecasts for non-oil growth match those of other international monitors, including the World Bank which sees the non-oil economy growing at a 4.3% y-o-y clip in 2023 due to “looser fiscal policy, robust private consumption, and public investment drive.” The Finance Ministry is penciling in more optimistic growth of 5.9% for non-oil activity in 2023.Sound smart: While total GDP dipped in 2023 on the back of lower oil prices, the Kingdom’s non-oil economy in general (and the private sector, in particular) are growing rapidly.Better years to come: The IMF expects the economy to pick up pace in 2025, raising its forecasts for GDP growth to 5.5% from 4.2% in its October forecast.What the pundits are saying: “Saudi Arabia’s post-pandemic boom is facing challenges. Oil prices haven’t been responsive to multiple production cuts from OPEC+. A war in Gaza and US elections pose political risks. And the latest data aren’t promising: non-oil growth is faltering, the unemployment rate is ticking up, and the budget is in deficit,” emerging markets economist Ziad Daoud said.THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK- IMF trims MENA outlook: The IMF lowered its MENA growth outlook for the year by 0.5 percentage points, now expecting regional growth to pick up to 2.9% in 2024 from 2.0% the year before. The Fund pointed to temporary oil cuts in Saudi Arabia as the main driver behind the slashed outlook.THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK-On a global level, there’s slightly more optimism: The Fund revised upwards its 2024 global growth outlook by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, thanks to the strength of the US economy and certain emerging markets, alongside fiscal support in China. What about next year? The IMF left its 2025 global growth forecast unchanged at 3.2%, well below the global growth average between 2000 and 2019 of 3.8%. The Fund sees high interest rates and fiscal support withdrawal weighing on economic growth.Soft landing in sight? Global headline inflation is thought to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, as “the global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blogpost. “On the downside, new commodity price spikes from geopolitical shocks –– including continued attacks in the Red Sea –– and supply disruptions or more persistent underlying inflation could prolong tight monetary conditions,” he cautioned.