Thursday, 12 June 2025

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Riyadh Air, AviLease to finalize major Airbus orders in Paris + King Street will reportedly expand into the Kingdom

PLUS: Ins. market is expected to enter an “accelerating” consolidation wave

Good morning, ladies and gents. Our issue for today is packed with news of inbound and outbound investments, from the likes of Acwa Power, Aviagen and DHL. We also have the latest update on our (and the world’s) growth prospects from the World Bank. Let’s dive in.

BUT FIRST: IN MEMORIAM- Prince Faisal bin Turki bin Saud Al Kabeer Al Saud passed away, state news agency SPA reports. The funeral prayer was held yesterday at Imam Turki bin Abdullah Mosque in Riyadh. Prince Faisal actively participated in a official and social engagements, frequently representing the royal family at community and religious events.

WEATHER- Riyadh is expected to see a high of 44°C and a low of 28°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 36°C and as low as 28°C. Makkah will see a 46°C high and 32°C low.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Riyadh Air + AviLease expected to finalize major Airbus orders: PIF-backed Riyadh Air is poised to finalize an order for 25 Airbus A350-1000 jets at next week’s Paris Airshow, Reuters reports, citing industry sources it says are in the know. PIF’s AviLease is also expected to close an agreement with Airbus for 40 airplanes, the sources said.

We knew this was coming: Riyadh Air was reportedly in talks with Boeing and Airbus for months, for an order of up to 50 additional widebody jets as it looks to expand its fleet. The airline is looking to secure scarce delivery slots for Airbus A350-1000 and Boeing 777X aircraft.

Take off is approaching: Saudi Arabia’s newest carrier pushed back its launch to 3Q 2025 from earlier this year, after facing delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries. The airline expects to receive as many as four Boeing 787 Dreamliners this year.


#2- PIF receives offers for Riyadh’s Project Rise: The Public Investment Fund (PIF) received bids for a project management contract to oversee a planned central business district and a proposed 2 km-tall tower near Riyadh, Meed reported last Monday.

The contract is issued by PIF’s Tower District Real Estate Development Company, and includes both the tower — expected to be more than double the height of Dubai’s Burj Khalifa and cost some USD 5 bn — and the wider district, known as Project Rise.

We knew this was coming: The PIF invited companies to submit bids for the project management consultancy in March. US-based firms Aecom, Bechtel, Jacobs, Parsons, and Turner, along with UK-based Mace were among those invited to bid. British architecture studio Foster + Partners is leading the tower’s design.


#3- US asset manager King Street Capital Management plans to expand into the Kingdom, Bloomberg reported, citing sources it said are familiar with the matter. The firm is currently applying for a license from the Capital Market Authority to operate and manage client funds locally. The USD 28.5 bn firm focuses on credit, real estate, and structured finance, including hedge and drawdown strategies.

REMEMBER- King Street has already established a foothold in the kingdom through an MoU with the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co. to boost liquidity and diversify financing solutions in the secondary real estate market, including the securitization of Shariah-compliant residential mortgage loans.

Asset managers are flocking to the Kingdom this year: Goldman Sachs Asset Management inked an agreement for PIF to anchor new private credit and public equity strategies in Saudi Arabia and the GCC. The PIF also teamed with BlackRock to explore investment opportunities and launch a new investment vehicle, and with Northern Trust Asset Management to potentially launch a USD 1 bn investment mandate in the kingdom.


#4- Anmat Technology for Trading’s stock gained 4.74% to close at SAR 9.71 on its Nomu debut yesterday, bucking a trend of slumping Nomu IPOs. The company’s shares will be allowed to fluctuate within a 30% band, with a static fluctuation band of 10% on the first three trading days. Starting from the fourth day, shares will be allowed to trade at a 10% volatility as circuit breakers take effect, and the static fluctuation limit will be removed.

REMEMBER- Anmat sold an 11.6% stake on the parallel market, good for 5 mn new shares at SAR 9.50 apiece, raising SAR 47.5 mn. The multi-sector operator saw strong investor demand for its primary offering, which was nearly 3x oversubscribed. Net proceeds were earmarked to finance two of its already-awarded projects.


#5- Our ins. market is expected to enter an “accelerating” consolidation wave, driven by stricter capital regulations and falling margins from price competition — especially in medical and motor ins. — according to a Fitch Ratings report. Agreements under discussion — which are mainly driven by regulatory pressure and financial strain — include potential mergers between Liva and Malath, Salama Cooperative and Saudi Enaya, and MedGulf and Buruj.

BACKGROUND- These developments follow a broader regulatory overhaul after the Saudi Ins. Authority took over sector supervision in 2023. It is set to implement a risk-based capital regime by 2027, introducing strict reporting and underwriting oversight.

The rationale: While Fitch views the consolidation trend and regulatory push as a positive development for the industry in the long run, short-term risks remain. Smaller ins. players are likely to face rising compliance costs and income pressure during the transition, due to limited economies of scale. Meanwhile, medical ins. — the largest segment — is expected to remain under pressure from earnings until the market consolidates and strict regulatory oversight begins to lift pricing.

The market remains dominated by large players, with Tawuniya and Bupa Arabia holding a combined 52% share of the market at the end of 2024.


#6- Al Mozaini Real Estate plans to list shares on Nomu: Hamad & Ahmad Mohammed Al Mozaini Real Estate Company signed an agreement with Yaqeen Capital to IPO its shares on Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu, Yaqeen said in a bourse disclosure. The move, which adds to Nomu’s hefty pipeline, is pending Capital Market Authority approval.

MARKET WATCH-

Foreign investors were net sellers on Tadawul’s main market last week before Eid, with net sales worth SAR 63.7 mn, according to the exchange’s weekly ownership and trading activity report (pdf). However, the value of shares under foreign ownership in Tadawul increased to SAR 400 bn supported by qualified investors.

Saudi + GCC Investors: Saudi investors were net sellers of Saudi equities at the week ending June 4, with a value of SAR 42.21 mn. Saudi investors also saw their ownership shed SAR 41.3 bn in value to SAR 8.69 tn, while Gulf investors recorded net purchases worth SAR 105.9 mn and their ownership decreased to SAR 68.97 bn.

Foreigners were net buyers on Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu, with net purchases worth SAR 1.3 mn. Local investors were net sellers of Saudi equities on Nomu, with net sales amounting to SAR 2.2 mn. GCC investors were net buyers with net purchases of SAR 888.1k.

Institutional investors dominated the main market, holding 86.75% of the freefloat, while retail investors led Nomu, controlling 66.24% of the freefloat.

DATA POINTS-

Voice calls in Makkah, Madinah, and the holy sites topped 181.2 mn during the 2025 hajj season, including 155 mn local and 25 mn international calls, the Communication, Space, and Technology Commission said in a post on X last Sunday. Mobile internet speeds rose 32% y-o-y to 297 Mbps, with daily data usage per person reaching 1.3k Mbit, nearly three times the global average, the commission said.

ALSO- STC’s network in Arafat recorded its highest traffic ever during this year’s hajj, with peak-hour data usage up 40% from last year and 5G traffic increasing by more than 98%, the telecommunication company said in a press release on Thursday. The company deployed over 80 mobile communication vehicles and more than 1k Wi-Fi access points across key sites.

OIL WATCH-

Opec still expects oil to dominate the energy mix past mid-century: Oil cartel Opec expects global crude consumption to exceed 120 mn bbl/d by 2050 as the world’s population expands and total energy demand rises by 24%, Reuters reports, citing statements by Opec’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais at the Global Energy Show in Canada.

Mind the investment gap: Opec pegs the financing bill for energy investments at some USD 17.4 tn over the next 25 years, noting that it has long flagged the dangers of underinvestment given its bullish demand outlook. Al Ghais warned that failing to inject enough capital into upstream projects risks supply shortfalls, volatility, and broader energy security risks.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Our corner of the world is once again topping the global press’ digital front pages with the US pulling embassy staff from the region amid rising tensions with Iran, after nuclear talks between the two nations appeared to break down ahead of the Trump administration’s 60-day deadline to come to an agreement ends today. All non-essential embassy staff in Baghdad were ordered to leave, while non-essential staff and family members were given the green light to leave Bahrain and Kuwait.

“They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place,” Trump told reporters yesterday in comments that expressed his pessimism that Iran would agree to stop enriching uranium. In reference to repeated threats that the US could bomb Iran if the talks fall apart, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that Tehran would respond to any strikes with attacks on US bases in the region.

Escalation fears drove Brent crude prices up over 5% and past the USD 70 a barrel mark during trading, before paring back gains to end the day 4.3% up at USD 69.77 a barrel. Safe-haven asset gold also saw an uptick in investor appetite, rising 1.3% to USD 3385.90 per troy ounce. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | Associated Press | Wall Street Journal | Washington Post)