Development finance

Good morning, lovely people, and happy hump day. We have a busy issue for you this morning, led by great news for Abu Dhabi, which saw its growth forecast upgraded to 6% by the IMF, as oil hikes and non-oil momentum continue to boost growth prospects. In M&A news, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is taking a significant minority stake in Hologic as part of a USD 18.3 bn buyout led by Blackstone and TPG. And in debt news, Property Finder is getting a USD 250 mn loan from US-based Ares Management. ALSO- Foreign investors are still loving GCC stocks — with UAE equities topping the list in the region in terms of YTD inflows. AND- There’s good news for both hotel investors and SMEs in the National SME Program, who are both seeing significant fee reductions. We have everything you need to know about this — and more — in the news well, below. WEATHER- Dubai will see a high of 37°C and an overnight low of 27°C today, while Abu Dhabi will see a high of 36°C and a low of 25°C, according to our favorite weather app. WATCH THIS SPACE- #1- International Holding Company’s (IHC) board signed off on Multiply Group’s proposed share-swap acquisition of its subsidiaries Ghitha Holding and 2PointZero Holding, it said in a filing (pdf) to the ADX. The transaction, which is still pending shareholder and regulatory approval, will consolidate all three IHC subsidiaries under Multiply, creating one of the emirate’s most diversified listed investment groups. REFRESHER- The combined entity would have around AED 120 bn in assets across 85 countries, spanning energy, food, logistics, packaging, mining, apparel, media, mobility and beauty, with the aim of serving 1 bn people globally. What we know: Multiply will issue 1.8 bn shares to IHC in exchange for its shares in Ghitha, and another 12.7 bn shares for 2PointZero, the statement reads. Multiply had previously said that the transaction will see Multiply Group issue approximately 23.36 bn new shares to acquire 2PointZero and Ghitha Holding, increasing its share capital from AED 2.8 bn to AED 8.64 bn, with the merged entity comprising 34.56 bn shares. What’s next? Shareholders will vote on the transaction on Wednesday, 12 November, when IHC holds its general assembly to approve the merger and a related amendment granting the board broader powers to execute financing and credit arrangements without prior shareholder consent. #2- New incentives for hotels in new Dubai areas: New hotels, resorts, and hotel apartments in Dubai South, Palm Jebel Ali, Dubai Parks, and Dubai Islands will be eligible for a reimbursement of a 7% municipal fee and tourism AED fees for its first two years of operations, under a new incentive package by the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism, according to a statement. The tourism AED fee ranges between AED 7 and 20 per room, per night, depending on the hotel’s star rating. It will only apply to hotels registered as of the introduction of the initiative. The move aims to encourage investments in emerging areas in the emirate, as Dubai continues to build out residential offerings and infrastructure to meet rising demand. #3- The Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX) is moving ahead with plans for an AED-denominated physically deliverable gold contract, as part of a wider strategy to deepen AED liquidity and strengthen the UAE’s role in global precious-metals trade, Ahmed Bin Sulayem, CEO and chairman of the Dubai Multi Commodities Center (DMCC), which oversees DGCX, said in a column for Khaleej Times. The proposal, which is currency pending approval from the Central Bank of the UAE and the Securities and Commodities Authority, will offer spot and monthly futures extending up to 12 months.Expect round the clock trading: DGCX and its clearing arm plan to extend trading time to 24 hours to overlap with major global markets, from Hong Kong to New York, while introducing same-day settlement for physical trades. Contracts will continue to clear through DMCC-approved vaults as part of efforts to improve efficiency and global market access.The move comes as DMCC positions itself for a new era of trade, backed by federal-level regulatory endorsement, rising global gold demand, and AI-driven clearing systems, Bin Sulayem said separately. DGCX is eyeing a daily benchmark gold price compliant with IOSCO principles, giving regional traders a transparent reference similar to London and Shanghai.#4- Sukuk reform not enough to secure higher Fitch ratings for sukuk: The UAE’s new sale of rights rule (pdf) to strengthen investor protection in sukuk defaults is not enough to prompt higher ratings for unsecured sukuk from Fitch Ratings, Fitch’s global head of Islamic finance, Bashar Al Natoor, is quoted as saying by Bloomberg. Refresher: The Higher Shariah Authority introduced the measure in May, allowing trustees to take ownership of underlying assets if issuers default, which is aimed at giving investors firmer recovery rights.Yes, but: The new framework still lacks the regulatory clarity needed to justify higher ratings, though Fitch may revisit its stance if future rulings clarify enforcement, Al Natoor said.Still a hit at home:. According to Bloomberg, the move has since gained popularity across the region with issuers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman also adding clauses that authorize trustees to register asset titles upon default.DATA POINTS- #1- Dubai climbs global city rankings amid AI-led urban shift: Dubai soared 19 places to rank 25th in the Global Cities Outlook category in consulting firm Kearney’s 2025 Global Cities Report. The category measures how forward-looking a city is, taking into account innovation, economics, well-being, and governance when determining future prospects. The emirate ranked 23rd in the overall Global Cities Index.Behind the rise: Dubai’s proactive immigration policies, which seek to attract talent in emerging sectors like AI and blockchain, combined with a favorable tax environment and high quality of life, have helped to draw in global professionals. Schemes like the long-term golden visa program are helping to snap up specialists seeking alternatives as US immigration policy tightens.#2- Fewer UAE employees are negotiating pay raises: Some 43% of employees in the UAE negotiated salary increases in the past year, down from 49% a year earlier, according to Michael Page’s UAE 2026 Salary Guide. A larger talent pool and increased competition have enabled employers to benchmark the salaries they offer.59% of UAE employees cite salary as the most important decision factor for jobs, despite the slowdown in salary negotiations, and 80% rank it among their top five priorities. Still, 52% are satisfied with their current pay, though two-thirds remain open to changing jobs in 2026 as they start to prioritize their work-life balance and career path, Michael Page's Middle East Managing Director Jon Ede told Khaleej Times. #3- F&B firms in Abu Dhabi up 42.2% in 1H: The Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ADCCI) saw memberships from firms in the food and beverage sector rise 42.2% y-o-y in 1H 2025, according to a press release. Active memberships stood at 24.6k at the end of 3Q, and SMEs currently account for 98% of food and beverage firms registered with ADCCI.PSAs- #1- Abu Dhabi’s Department of Municipalities and Transport (DMT) has opened Al Ain’s revamped Zakher Intersection — connecting Falaj Hazza in the east to Zakher in the west, according to a statement. The project, valued at AED 185 mn, has transformed the roundabout into a traffic light-controlled intersection, with the development of a three-lane 900 m tunnel in each direction, passing underneath Hazza bin Sultan. #2- The Natural History Museum in Abu Dhabi will open its doors on Saturday, 22 November at the Saadiyat Cultural District, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. Spanning 35k sqm, the museum is set to be the largest of its kind in the region, guiding visitors through 13.8 bn years of history. Key exhibits include Stan, a Tyrannosaurus rex skeleton, and a 7 bn-year-old Murchison meteorite. HAPPENING TODAY- #1- Global Food Week is running until Thursday at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. Experts and industry leaders from the agriculture, food manufacturing, food security, and hospitality sectors will meet for discussions, exhibitions, and networking sessions focusing on showcasing solutions to improve global food security and sustainability. Last year’s event saw AED 6.2 bn worth of agreements signed.#2- The Healthcare Future Summit is also on until Thursday at the Dubai World Trade Center. The summit will bring together healthcare professionals, industry leaders, and researchers to discuss the landscape of vaccine development and global disease control. Discussions will cover vaccine formulations, cancer research and therapeutic vaccines, antimicrobial resistance, measles, and the role of AI in vaccine innovation.#3- The Reuters NEXT Gulf Summit is happening today at The St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort in Abu Dhabi. The summit will bring together regional and global leaders and firms to discuss challenges and prospects facing Gulf economies in areas including geopolitics, banking and financing, and AI and technology.#4- The Alternative Investment Summit is on today and tomorrow at the Jumeirah Emirates Towers in Dubai, gathering asset managers, private equity firms, and institutional investors to discuss developments, market trends, and evolving regulatory frameworks in investment.#5- The World Investment Conference and Sharjah Investment Forum are kicking off today and will on until Friday at the Jawaher Reception and Convention Center in Sharjah, bringing together policymakers, investors, and multilateral institutions for over 60 workshops and conference sessions to discuss investment solutions, with this year focusing on SMEs, AI, and youth entrepreneurship. HAPPENING TOMORROW- S&P Global’s annual Islamic Finance Conference is happening tomorrow at the DIFC Atrium in Dubai.The conference brings together industry leaders, regulators, and investors to discuss the future of Islamic finance. The event will focus on the global outlook for the sector with sessions exploring growth investments, structural challenges, and the GCC’s changing capital markets. THE BIG STORY ABROAD- It’s a busy morning in the international business press, while a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire looks further from reach after Russia rejected US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal, and a planned Russia-US summit in Budapest was shelved. (New York Times | Reuters) The biggest business headlines: #1- Gold broke its record rally after seeing its steepest drop in years, as investors began to buy the dip in a rare pullback this year against the backdrop of a strengthening USD and easing trade tensions between China and the US. Spot gold fell 6% to USD 4.1k, after the precious metal climbed 28% YTD, with analysts now questioning whether this could mark the end of the metal’s brilliant run and the start of a correction cycle. (Financial Times | Reuters) #2- OpenAI launched its own competitor to Google’s search engine, Atlas, built around ChatGPT, sending shares of Google’s parent Alphabet down 1.8% yesterday and intensifying competition between the two tech giants. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Guardian) #3- Netflix’s shares also took a hit, falling more than 5% after missing its third-quarter earnings target due to a hefty tax expense in Brazil. (Reuters | CNBC | FT | Wall Street Journal) #4- In M&A news, Warner Bros rejected a c. USD 60 bn bid from Paramount Skydance, though it is open to selling its assets, with interested parties including Netflix and Comcast. (WSJ | Reuters | FT) Get Enterprise daily The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe here ***You’re reading EnterpriseAM UAE, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about the UAE, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Monday through Friday by 7am UAE time.EnterpriseAM UAE is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Mashreq and Hassan Allam Properties. Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM UAE.Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on UAE@enterpriseAM.com .DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the MENA logistics industry?***

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects Abu Dhabi’s GDP to grow at a 6% clip this year, up from 4.2% earlier in May, and faster than Dubai’s 3.4% growth, state news agency Wam quotes IMF’s director for the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia Jihad Azour as saying at a presser yesterday. Dubai’s forecast was also raised by 0.1%.Abu Dhabi in particular benefits from increased oil production following the unwinding of Opec+’s supply cuts, alongside strong non-oil momentum from both services and real estate sectors, Azour said.REMEMBER- The IMF expects the UAE’s economy to grow 4.8% in 2025, up from its 4% forecast in April, placing the UAE among the region’s fastest-growing economies this year. This comes as Opec+ members continue to unwind earlier oil cuts, and earlier this month agreeing to add a total of 137k bbl / d to production again next month, after approving the same additional number of barrels for October. THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK-The MENA region’s outlook was revised upward by 0.1 percentage points from July’s forecast to 3.3% in 2025, while the projection for next year’s growth was also revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7%. The fund now expects the region's GDP to remain broadly steady over the medium term.“Economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa has shown remarkable resilience, despite persistent global uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions. The region has largely avoided direct fallout from higher US tariffs and global trade restrictions. And while recent tensions have raised concern, their impact has been limited and short-lived,” Azour said in a press briefing (pdf).The GCC is expected to grow 3.9% this year, up by 0.9 percentage points from the fund’s last forecast, and significantly higher than the 2.2% growth achieved in 2024. This uptick is mainly driven by the accelerated phasing out of OPEC+ production cuts and robust expansion in non-oil sectors. Growth for 2026 was also upgraded by 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast to 4.3%. Beyond oil revenues, diversification efforts across the GCC are gaining momentum, with non-oil sectors participating significantly in sustaining growth and job creation, Azour said during the press briefing.

The IMF upgrades global growth forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts global growth to reach 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from its July estimates, it said in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf). The fund expects growth to ease further to 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast.Behind the steady outlook: The IMF said global activity has held up better than expected despite trade policy shifts, supported by lower-than-expected tariff rates, an agile private sector that front-loaded imports and rerouted supply chains, a weaker dollar, fiscal stimulus in Europe and China, and an AI-driven investment boom. “So bottom line: not as bad as we feared, but worse than we anticipated a year ago, and worse than we need,” Reuters quotes the IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas as saying earlier this week.MENA gets an upgrade: The MENA region is expected to log a 3.3% growth this year, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from July projections. Growth is set to accelerate next year to 3.7%, a 0.3 point upgrade. The IMF cited Saudi Arabia’s fast-than-anticipated oil production hikes and Egypt’s better-than-expected outrun in the first half of the year as the main drivers of the upgrade.Major economies saw mixed revisions: The IMF now expects the US to grow 2.0% in 2025, a 0.1 percentage point upgrade from its July forecast, while Japan’s 2025 growth got an upgrade by 0.4 percentage point to 1.1%. Meanwhile, the fund lowered its forecast for Canada’s growth by 0.4 percentage point to 1.2%, and for the UK by 0.1 percentage point to 1.3%.China and India also see stronger outlooks: China’s 2025 outlook stayed unchanged at 4.8% on the back of increased exports that the IMF says were unsustainable, pointing at the country’s contracting real estate sector pushing its economy to “the edge of debt-deflation trap,” Gourinchas noted. Meanwhile, India’s growth forecast rose by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6% for 2025, while the 2026 growth outlook got a downward revision to 6.2%, from earlier forecasts of 6.4%.Across the Atlantic: Growth in the Eurozone is now projected at 1.2% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from July, buoyed by Germany’s fiscal expansion and Spain’s growing momentum. The IMF expects the area’s growth to reach 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.2% in the previous forecast.Trade remains a swing factor: The fund projects global trade volumes to grow 3.6% in 2025,, driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of tariff hikes. This front-loading effect will likely carry over into 2026, with trade growth forecast to rise to 2.3% — 0.4 percentage point higher than the previous projection.AI bubble is a major downside risk: Growing investments in AI echo the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, Gourinchas said in a blogpost. ”Markets could reprice sharply, especially if AI fails to justify lofty profit expectations. That would dent wealth and curb consumption, with adverse effects potentially reverberating through the financial system,” Gourinchas added.The inflation outlook: Global headline inflation is forecasted to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, “virtually unchanged” from July’s or April’s projections. Inflation is expected to remain above target in the US, while easing in Europe and Asia, indicating lower growth performances.MARKETS THIS MORNING-Asian markets are inching higher this morning, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 1.6% in early trading, while Japan’s Nikkei is up 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.4%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are subdued following a volatile session fueled by US-China trade concerns.ADX10,111+0.1% (YTD: +7.3%)DFM6,033+1.4% (YTD: +16.9%)Nasdaq Dubai UAE204,886+1.0% (YTD: +17.3%)USD : AED CBUAEBuy 3.67Sell 3.67EIBOR3.9% o/n3.9% 1 yrTASI11,5960.0% (YTD: -3.7%)EGX30 37,459+0.1% (YTD: +26.0%)S&P 500 6,644-0.2% (YTD: +13.0%)FTSE 100 9,453+0.1% (YTD: +15.7%)Euro Stoxx 50 5,552-0.3% (YTD: +13.4%)Brent crude USD 62.28-1.6%Natural gas (Nymex) USD 3.01-0.6%Gold USD 4,178+0.4%BTC USD 113,327-1.9% (YTD: +21.3%)Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETFAED 3.750.0% (YTD: +7.7%)S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk151.000.0% (YTD: +7.9%)VIX (Volatility Index)20.81+9.4% (YTD: +19.9%)THE CLOSING BELL-The ADX rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.3 bn. The index is up 7.3% YTD.In the green: Gulf Cement Co. (+3.2%), National Corporation for Tourism & Hotels (+2.6%) and Burjeel Holdings (+2.3%).In the red: Al Khaleej Investment (-7.8%), National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain (-5.2%) and Umm Al Qaiwain General Investment Co. (-4.7%). Over on the DFM, the index rose 1.4% on turnover of AED 741.6 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.0%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects the UAE’s economy to grow 4.8% in 2025, up from its 4% forecast in April, placing the UAE among the region’s fastest-growing economies this year, according to its latest mission statement. The upgrade reflects a recovery in hydrocarbon activity thanks to higher oil output as Opec+ production ramps up, and continued momentum across non-oil sectors including tourism, construction, and financial services.The Fund kept its 2026 growth forecast unchanged at 5%, similarly supported by both higher hydrocarbon output, “robust non-hydrocarbon growth,” and large-scale infrastructure projects.Inflation easing, buffers intact: Inflation is now expected to come in at 1.6% this year, down from the Fund’s earlier 2.1% estimate, before stabilizing around 2% over the medium term. Real estate costs are once again set to be the main cause of price pressures, while tradables stay subdued. The Fund said risks to the outlook are “broadly balanced,” underpinned by the UAE’s sustained economic diversification agenda and large sovereign buffers.Fiscal and external surpluses are expected to stay strong, “providing ample buffers […] to respond to adverse shocks.” The non-hydrocarbon primary deficit is narrowing faster than anticipated, supported by the rollout of the corporate tax and other indirect levies. The IMF again called for greater coordination between federal and emirate-level budgets to enhance policy consistency.The banking sector remains “strong and sound,” backed by double-digit deposit growth, improving asset quality, and conservative lending practices. The Fund cited new safeguards including the countercyclical capital buffer and the Financial Stability Council, and progress on the Digital AED, stablecoin regulations, and capital-market reforms as signs of steady modernization amid prudent risk management. Banks’ reduced exposure to the real estate sector was flagged as positive, however the IMF also cited risks associated with real estate tokenization projects.ICYMI- How this stacks up: The IMF’s new projection brings its outlook closer to that of other institutions. The CBUAE expects GDP to grow 4.9% in 2025, while the ICAEW forecasts growth of 5.1%, supported by a 4.7% non-oil expansion. Standard Chartered also sees 5% growth, compared to Fitch Solutions’ BMI at 4.3%. IN OTHER ECONOMY NEWS- Moody’s maintained the UAE and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing strong state institutions, high per capita income, and robust oil reserves with 70 years worth of supply, Al Khaleej reports. The agency said these fundamentals underpin the economy’s resilience and support continued diversification away from hydrocarbons.Fiscal strength: Moody’s highlighted the UAE’s solid public finances as a key driver of credit stability. Federal debt remains among the lowest globally at around 3% of GDP in 2024, rising modestly to 3.5% by 2027 amid bond and sukuk issuances to develop the local debt market. Abu Dhabi’s fiscal surplus stood at 7% of GDP last year, supported by high oil revenues and large financial assets that continue to anchor sovereign strength.Economic outlook: The agency expects the non-oil sector to grow 4-5% between 2025 and 2026, supported by projects such as the Etihad Rail network — set to link the UAE with other GCC states — and the unified Gulf visa launching in 2026, which should bolster tourism and investment flows.

DEVELOPMENT FINANCE- ADFD-backed Maldives airport opens: The Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) attended the inauguration of Maldives’ Velana International Airport after providing AED 330.5 mn in financing towards the project, state news agency Wam reports. The expansion increases the airport's capacity to 7 mn annual passengers, including through a new international terminal. The project also received funding from the Saudi Fund for Development, Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development, and Opec Fund for International Development.Background: The fund provided a AED 147 mn loan last year to support the project and an earlier loan of AED 183.5 mn in 2017 for its initial phases. It also helped support the country’s Maafaru International Airport project, which was completed earlier this month.REAL ESTATE-Al Rasikhoon Real Estate launches 8.5 mn sq ft Sharjah project: Real estate developer Al Rasikhoon Real Estate kickstarted sales for its new 8.5 mn sq ft Rawdat Al Sidr mixed-use development in Sharjah, Albayan reports.The project includes residential, commercial, and industrial plots. Plots range from 270-1.1k sqm, with permit options including residential-commercial, investment-residential, and office-residential-commercial permits.

UAE, Oman ramp up cooperation on competition policy: The Economy and Tourism Ministry — previously known as the Economy Ministry — held talks with Oman’s Commerce, Industry, and Investment Promotion Ministry to deepen bilateral cooperation on competition regulation, state news agency Wam reports. Discussions focused on curbing monopolistic practices in digital markets, strengthening enforcement tools, and encouraging private sector participation, with both sides agreeing to develop an action plan focused on the digital platform economy.PLUS- UAE joins Islamic Fund for Sahel Youth Support: The UAE agreed to join the Organization of Islamic Cooperation’s Fund for Youth Support in the Sahel and Lake Chad region during the Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in Istanbul, Dubai Eye reports.

Fierce backlash is mounting in Lebanon against IMF-sponsored banking sector reforms, with civil society groups, independent media, and reformist policymakers allegedly being targeted in what the IMF says is a coordinated campaign that would undermine progress on financial and political changes, the Financial Times writes. The alleged smear campaign — reportedly promulgated by some in the banking sector, according to media watchdog Samir Kassir Foundation head Ayman Mhanna — is the result of mounting pressure on the newly formed Lebanese government to enact long-delayed reforms aimed at restructuring the banking sector and unlocking an IMF rescue package.What’s behind the backlash? The IMF’s conditions — which include lifting banking secrecy, restructuring the financial system, and addressing more than USD 70 bn in post-crisis losses since 2019 — would force banks and their political allies to disclose sensitive financial data and shoulder a portion of the losses.Despite pressure from the media, the Lebanese parliament was able to amend the country’s banking secrecy law to allow broader access to historical financial records. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam hailed the move as a “necessary step towards the desired economic reform” and essential to “holding perpetrators accountable.” The law allows authorities to access records going back up to a decade — a clause that some legacy interests have strongly opposed.More battles ahead: A draft banking sector restructuring law has been approved by the cabinet and is now under discussion in parliament’s finance committee, though legislation on how to distribute financial losses — and how to repay depositors — has yet to be agreed. The secretary-general of the Association of Banks in Lebanon said the sector wants “a realistic balance between financial reform and the protection of depositors’ rights.”ADX9,579+0.2% (YTD: +1.0%)DFM5,291+0.4% (YTD: +2.5%)Nasdaq Dubai UAE204,386+0.7% (YTD: +5.3%)USD : AED CBUAEBuy 3.67Sell 3.67EIBOR4.0% o/n4.2% 1 yrTASI11,412-1.1% (YTD: -5.3%)EGX3032,352+0.7% (YTD: +8.8%)S&P 5005,687+1.5% (YTD: -3.3%)FTSE 1008,596+1.2% (YTD: +5.2%)Euro Stoxx 505,285+2.4% (YTD: +8.0%)Brent crudeUSD 61.29-1.4%Natural gas (Nymex) USD 3.63+4.3%Gold USD 3,243+0.7%BTCUSD 95,671-0.6% (YTD: +2.2%)Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETFAED 3.65+1.7% (YTD: +2.4%)S&P MENA Bond & SukukUSD 144.7-0.2% (YTD: +2.7%)VIX (Volatility Index)USD 22.7-7.8% (YTD: +30.7%)THE CLOSING BELL-The ADX rose 0.2% on Friday on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. The index is up 0.2% YTD.In the green: Phoenix Group (+4.3%), Multiply Group (+2.7%) and Presight AI Holding (+2.5%).In the red: Al Wathba National Ins. Co (-10.0%), Hayah Ins. Co (-4.0%) and Al Khaleej Investment (-3.8%). Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 447.3 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.7%.CORPORATE ACTIONS-Invictus’ shareholders approved a AED 33 mn dividend for 2024, equivalent to 2.946 fils per share, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Abu Dhabi’s economy to grow at a faster pace than Dubai’s this year, projecting 4.2% growth for the former and 3.3% for the latter, state news agency Wam quotes IMF Middle East and Central Asia Director Jihad Azour as saying during the launch of the Fund’s latest Regional Economic Outlook (pdf) in Dubai. Abu Dhabi’s economy is expected to grow a further 5.8% next year, while Dubai’s could grow 3.5%. Azour cited continued expansion in Dubai’s non-oil sector, rising infrastructure investment, and strong performances in real estate, construction, and financial services as drivers of economic growth, Al Bayan reports. How this compares to its UAE outlook: The IMF maintained its UAE-wide growth forecast unchanged at 4% for 2025 and 5% for 2026, amongst the highest in the GCC. Non-oil GDP was projected to grow by 4.5%, driven by tourism, construction, public spending, and financial services.Zooming out: The Fund cut its 2025 growth forecast for the wider Mena region to 2.6%, down sharply from 4% last October, citing ongoing geopolitical instability, oil market volatility, weak external demand, and trade uncertainty. The growth forecast among the region’s oil exporters was cut to 2.3%, a downward revision from its previous 4% prediction. It also sees importing economies growing 3.4%, down from its initial forecast of 3.9% growth.GCC economies are expected to outperform the broader region, but 2025 growth is now seen at 3%, down from 4.2% previously. The revision reflects the extension of Opec+ production cuts through April and slower non-oil activity. That said, the IMF sees diversification efforts in the UAE and Saudi Arabia as key to supporting medium-term resilience.Risks remain tilted to the downside, Azour told Reuters, citing global trade tensions, declining oil prices, and regional conflicts. “Uncertainty could impact the real economy, consumption, [and] investment,” he said, though limited trade integration with the US may reduce direct tariff exposure. The report also flagged the conflict in Gaza and delayed reforms in Egypt as presenting headwinds regionally.What could help: “Trade diversification, acceleration of structural reforms, and improvement of productivity are all elements that will help the non-oil sector to maintain a strong level of growth," Azour added.

A silver economy is on the rise, shaped by a slowdown in worldwide population growth, a drop in fertility, and extended lifespans. The IMF’s 2025 World Economic Outlook (pdf) outlines new economic prospects that healthier seniors can unlock as the global age structure shifts, despite challenges to labor supply and public finances.An aging world: Most economies are approaching or have crossed their “demographic turning point” — where the working-age population begins to decline. By 2035, all advanced and major emerging economies will be on the other side of this shift, with most low-income countries following by 2070. By the end of the century, the worldwide average age is set to rise by 11 years.Aging creeps in across the world’s youngest regions too: While the biggest advanced economies and emerging markets in Europe and Asia have the largest share of older population, the younger Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East are also on track to see a steep rise in older people. The more fertility falls and lifespans extend, the smaller the window to reap demographic dividends — especially in low-income countries.Healthier, not just older: Today’s 70-year-olds match the cognitive sharpness of 53-year-olds in 2000, fueling longer careers, delayed retirements, and higher earnings. Better health has raised the chances of seniors participating in the labor force by 20 percentage points. However, challenges like outdated skills, pension limitations, and age discrimination persist for older age groups.Aging is expected to weigh down in growth: These global demographic shifts are set to slow economic growth and strain public finances over the long term. Overall output growth is expected to decline by 1.1 percentage points through 2050 and by 2 percentage points through 2100, compared to 2016–2018 levels. Output per capita growth is also projected to slow by 0.6 percentage points through 2050 and by 1.8 points by century’s end.Regional growth implications: Advanced economies like Japan face contraction risks due to aging, while the US and Canada maintain modest growth due to favorable demographics. China will see a sharp growth deceleration (down 2.7 percentage points in 2025-2050), while India, though initially insulated with a 0.7 point slowdown, will face increasing pressure post-2050.AND- These trends are expected to pressure interest rates downward and threaten debt sustainability. Aging populations save more, invest less, and strain pension and healthcare systems.Balancing capital and labor: Global aging could also shift capital from older, high-savings nations to younger, capital-scarce ones. At the same time, younger workers might move to aging economies to fill workforce gaps, providing a potential balance in global labor markets and capital flows.How can countries adapt? Promoting preventive healthcare and reducing risk factors can improve rates of healthy aging. Pension reform and adaptable workplaces, as well as bridging labor market gaps by addressing age, gender, and income disparities, would promote longer working lives. Economies could also boost fertility by supporting childcare and flexible work arrangements that balance career and family. Meanwhile, productivity could be increased by leveraging AI and biotechnology.The “silver” lining: Measures like increasing senior participation rates, delaying retirement, and narrowing gender gaps could raise annual growth by up to 0.6 percentage points annually through 2050. This would offset almost 75% of the demographic drag during this period, with some countries in Europe and India could see even higher growth.MARKETS THIS MORNING-Asian markets are mixed this morning, as investors carefully weigh trade developments and new stimulus measures from China. Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.8%, and Hang Seng (Hong Kong) is slightly up 0.1%, while Shanghai Composite is down 0.2%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are pointing to a lower opening ahead of a packed earnings week that has Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft (among other heavyweights) on the docket.ADX9,392-0.4% (YTD: -0.3%)DFM5,163-0.6% (YTD: -0.1%)Nasdaq Dubai UAE204,234-0.3% (YTD: +1.7%)USD : AED CBUAEBuy 3.67Sell 3.67EIBOR4.1% o/n4.1% 1 yrTASI11,756-0.1% (YTD: -2.3%)EGX30 31,855+0.7% (YTD: +7.1%)S&P 5005,525+0.7% (YTD: -6.1%)FTSE 1008,415+0.1% (YTD: +3.0%)Euro Stoxx 505,154+0.8% (YTD: +5.3%)Brent crudeUSD 66.87+0.5Natural gas (Nymex)USD 2.94+0.2%GoldUSD 3298.40-1.5%BTCUSD 94,401.20+0.1% (YTD: +0.9%)THE CLOSING BELL-The DFM fell 0.6% last Friday on turnover of AED 436.8 mn. The index is down 0.1% YTD.In the green: Al Salam Bank (+3.1%), Amanat Holdings (+2.9%) and Union Properties (+2.7%).In the red: Emirates Investment Bank (-9.5%), National General Ins. (-7.5%) and National Cement (-6.8%). Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.4% on turnover of AED 1.5 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.3%.CORPORATE ACTIONS-Edge Group’s naval arm Abu Dhabi Ship Building’s board of directors approved the distribution of AED 40.3 mn in dividends for 2024, according to a press release (pdf). PLUS- Two contracts approved: The board also approved two transactions, including Edge Commercial’s execution of maintenance works for naval defense vessels for Kuwait for a total value of AED 495.25 mn, and Emirates Advanced Research & Technology Holding’s construction of military naval vessels for Nigeria for USD 128.53 mnInvictus Investment Company’s general assembly approved a dividend payout of AED 33 mn for 2024, equivalent to 2.95 fils per share, according to a press release (pdf).

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its 2025 growth forecast for the UAE at 4% — the highest forecast across the GCC — in its latest World Economic Outlook report (pdf), despite a global backdrop of headwinds following the introduction of US tariffs. The report’s projection matches the fund’s January forecast, with growth expected to accelerate to 5% in 2026. ***The UAE is among a rare few who did not see their GDP growth forecast slashed in the latest outlook update — we have more on the IMF’s global growth forecasts in today’s Planet Finance, below. Inflation is seen rising to 2.1% in 2025, up from 1.7% in 2024, before easing to 2% in 2026. This is a slight upward revision from the fund’s earlier estimate of 2% inflation for 2025. The current account surplus is forecast at 6.6% of GDP in 2025, a downgrade from the 7.5% projected in January, with a further drop to 6.4% by the end of 2026.REMEMBER- The IMF sees the UAE’s non-hydrocarbon revenue being a main driver for the country’s economy in 2025, with non-oil GDP projected to grow 4.5% this year. Tourism, construction, public spending, and financial services are expected to post steady gains in upcoming years. How it stacks up:The World Bank revised down forecast for economic growth in the UAE in January 2025, expecting 4.1% growth for the year;The UAE Central Bank expects a stronger 4.7% GDP growth; S&P Global and Fitch Solutions ’s research unit BMI forecast 5.1% growth this year.REMEMBER- The UAE’s expanding trade network is expected to act as a buffer against tariff shocks, with stronger ties helping lower barriers and mitigate external risks, according to Emirates NBD research. UAE–US relations are also seen as a stabilizing factor, especially as the UAE has pledged USD 1.4 tn in investments in the US. BMI expects GCC economies to remain shielded from Trump’s tariffs due to strategic and economic factors.S&P Global agrees: Economic conditions in a number of GCC countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar “remain in solid shape” despite the US administration’s trade policies, with S&P Global Market Research only slightly revising downwards its growth outlook for the three countries across 2025 and 2026, Zawya reports, citing a report from S&P. The research unit cites falling oil prices as the main culprit for slower growth, but says UAE and Qatar are expected to withstand an extended period of lower oil prices.S&P also sees global growth reaching its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis — barring the pandemic: S&P lowered its annual global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.2% from 2.5% previously, and down from a forecast that was close to 3% prior to the US elections. The forecast for next year’s real GDP growth was also lowered to 2.4%, down from 2.7% previously. “In both years, projected global growth would be the weakest since the global financial crisis of 2008–09, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic,” S&P wrote.

The UAE poised to finalize USD 1.5 bn loan to Kenya: The UAE is set to distribute a USD 1.5 bn loan to Kenya in a single payment by the end of the week, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. The loan marks a shift from earlier plans to stagger the loan in order to comply with the IMF’s USD 1.3 bn cap on commercial borrowing for the fiscal year.Background: Kenya sought the financing from the UAE last year to reduce reliance on eurobonds, bilateral lenders like China, and multilateral institutions. The loan agreement follows a trade and investment agreement signed between the two countries in January.

Emirates Development Bank (EDB) set a financing target of AED 23 bn for 2025 to support economic diversification and sustainable development in the UAE, according to a press release. Significant allocations will be directed toward manufacturing, advanced technology, renewable energy, and SMEs. The lender also aims to expand industrial co-lending partnerships and accelerate digital transformation initiatives. In 2024, EDB reported a record 222% y-o-y increase in financing, reaching AED 8.7 bn. This contributed AED 4.1 bn to the UAE’s industrial GDP and facilitated the creation of over 14k jobs. The bank has deployed AED 15.7 bn in financing since launching its transformational strategy in 2021, bringing its total industrial GDP impact to AED 7.4 bn. By the sector: Manufacturing remained the largest beneficiary of EDB’s financing last year, receiving AED 4.2 bn, which accounted for nearly half of total lending. The bank directed AED 3 bn into advanced technology, while AED 1.2 bn went to renewable energy projects aligned with the UAE’s net zero ambitions. The food security sector saw some AED 1.2 bn in financing, and the healthcare sector saw 1.1 bn. Micro, small, and medium enterprises (mSMEs) remained a key priority, with EDB allocating AED 3 bn in financing to support their growth. This included AED 758 mn through the Credit Guarantee Scheme in partnership with 11 commercial banks, AED 2.1 bn in direct financing, and AED 107 mn for SME-micro projects aimed at ramping up financial inclusion.

The International Monetary Fund has revised its forecasts for the UAE’s economy this year to 4%, down from its December forecast of 5.1% growth for the year, the IMF said in a press release following its most recent visit to the UAE. The Fund also slashed its forecast for the hydrocarbon sector, with the Fund now seeing the sector growing above 2% in 2025, down from its previous forecast in December of 6.7% growth for the sector this year.The revision comes on the back of Opec+’s decision to sustain production cuts, as well as the UAE’s implementation of a “a more gradual Opec+ quota increase,” the statement reads. “Volatile oil prices” are also set to impact revenues, the IMF said.This brings the IMF’s forecast in line with that of the World Bank, which said in a report last week that it sees the economy growing at a 4% clip in 2025 — slightly down from its previous forecast of 4.1% growth for the year. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) penciled in a higher growth estimate of 4.5% in 2025 in December.Non-hydrocarbon activity will help offset the losses: Non-hydrocarbon revenue — namely coming from tourism, construction, public expenditure, and continued growth in financial services — is expected to see steady growth in the coming years, the IMF mission concluded. The IMF previously predicted non-hydrocarbon GDP growth to come in at 4.5% this year, down from 5.3% in 2024.Capital inflows also remain strong on the back of “social and business-friendly reforms,” driving demand for real estate — and, in turn, driving further growth in real estate prices, the report reads. Reforms are expected to bolster non-hydrocarbon revenue even further: The UAE’s recent reform efforts will “support medium-term growth and a smooth energy transition, with prioritization and sequencing key to ensure effective outcomes. Ongoing infrastructureinvestments should enhance tourism and domestic activity, while ongoing trade liberalization,underpinned by Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, should further boost tradeand FDI,” the IMF mission said.The Fund also slightly revised down its inflation forecast for the year, expecting it to remain contained at 2% — down from its December forecast of 2.1% inflation. This comes “despite higher housing and utilities-related costs.” The current account surplus is projected at around 7.5% of GDP, down from its December forecast of 8.2%.NON-OIL ACTIVITY BOOSTS MIDDLE EAST GROWTH PROSPECTS-Investors are confident about the region’s growth prospects this year: Growth in the Middle East is expected to be stronger in 2025 than it was in 2024 on the back of “continued solid expansions in the non-oil economies in key countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,” as well as “some likely increase in oil production,” according to the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants’ Global Economic Conditions report (pdf). Confidence in the region among chief financial officers and accountants was among the highest in the world in 4Q 2024, despite falling sharply from 3Q, coming only second to South Asia in terms of overall economic confidence among the 1.8k surveyed. The study also showed that new orders in the region grew by 10 index points in 4Q 2024, outperforming all other markets surveyed — further signaling confidence in the region’s growth prospects for the year.

Good morning, friends. There’s a big Trump theme in today’s issue, with the big story of the day being Damac Properties’ planned USD 20 bn investment in data centers in the US, hot on the heels of Trump’s election. Plus: Dar Global — a key partner for the Trump Organization in the region — is eyeing expansions in the US. Outside of Trump Land, we have several M&A and investment news from DAE, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and Alchemative Group. Let’s dive in. ☁️WEATHER- Expect to see cloudy skies today, with a chance of rainfall, particularly over the islands and some coastal and Northern areas, according to the National Center of Meteorology’s forecast (pdf). The mercury will reach 25°C today in Dubai before dropping to an overnight low of 19°C. Meanwhile, in Abu Dhabi, temperatures will peak at 22°C, with a low of 20°C.WATCH THIS SPACE- #1- The UAE agreed to roll over a USD 2 bn repayment that was due by Pakistan this month, Reuters quotes Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif as saying at a press conference. The UAE government originally deposited the funds in 2019 under a USD 3 bn financial assistance package and rolled it over in January 2023 and January 2024.Background: Pakistan had been seeking to drum up external financing to meet the requirements of its ongoing USD 7 bn loan program with the IMF, and previously lined up financing commitments from the UAE, China, and Saudi Arabia as part of the program in September. More investments in Pakistan coming? The PM also said he asked UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for “a few bn USD” in investments in key projects during his visit to the UAE earlier this week. #2- Dar Global eyes US, Greece expansion: Dubai-based developer Dar Global, the international arm of Saudi Dar Al Arkan, plans to expand operations in the US and Greece, Reuters reports. The developer plans to invest in major US cities, seeking partnerships with developers on luxury residential properties. The focus will be on both US residents and international buyers, although specific project details remain undisclosed.REMEMBER- The decision follows recent joint projects with the Trump Organization, including Trump Towers in Jeddah and Dubai, as well as a hotel project in Oman. Eric Trump, Trump Organization’s executive vice president, also told Reuters last month that additional projects are in the pipeline for the region, including a tower in Riyadh and further developments in Abu Dhabi.DATA POINT- Lunate had a good 2024: Abu Dhabi-based alternative asset manager Lunate’s total assets under management for its ADX and DFM-listed ETFs grew 13% y-o-y in 2024 to AED 831 mn, according to a LinkedIn post. The company reported AED 2 bn in trading liquidity across its ETFs, with its portfolio expanding to 17 ETFs listed on the Abu Dhabi and Dubai bourses, compared to 12 a year earlier.PSAs- #1- Syria resumes flights to the UAE: Syria’s Damascus International Airport resumed international flights yesterday for the first time since the fall of Bashar Al Assad’s regime on 8 December with a flight to Sharjah, Syrian state news agency Sana reports. Qatar Airways also resumed flights to Damascus following a 13-year hiatus, while flights to Dubai were also set to resume as of yesterday, AFP reports.#2- Air Arabia adds Ethiopia flights: Air Arabia is launching non-stop flights to Ethiopia’s capital starting 30 January, the Sharjah-based budget airline stated. The new route will connect Sharjah International Airport with Addis Ababa Bole International Airport, running three weekly flights in both directions on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays.#3- Sharjah updates fees for impounded vehicle releases: The Sharjah Executive Council revised fees on releasing impounded vehicles in the emirate, applying to vehicles held due to serious safety-related offenses, according to a statement. No further details were disclosed on the value of the fees. HAPPENING TODAY- #1- The Arab Plast International Trade Fair for Plastics, Recycling, Petrochemicals, Packaging and Rubber Industry kicked off yesterday and runs through tomorrow at the Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Center. The event will showcase advancements in the plastics and recycling sectors, with a focus on sustainable practices, circular economy, recycling technologies, and sustainable materials. #2- Dubai International Pharma & Technologies Conference and Exhibition (DUPHAT) kicked off yesterday at the Dubai World Trade Center. DUPHAT, which wraps up on Thursday, will feature scientific sessions, workshops, and scientific poster presentations from university students. Additionally, it will feature Vita Show Dubai, showcasing innovations in nutritional supplements.HAPPENING TOMORROW- The Sharjah Consultative Council will discuss a draft law on corporate tax for the emirate’s natural resources in its upcoming session tomorrow, Sharjah 24 reports.REMEMBER- The council’s Financial, Economic and Industrial Affairs Committee had reviewed a draft law proposing taxation on companies involved in natural resource activities in the emirate late last month. The law targets companies involved in both extractive activities — such as oil, gas, and coal — and non-extractive natural resources. The committee was set to submit the draft law’s final report to the Advisory Council for approval. THE BIG STORY ABROAD- It’s a busy morning in the foreign press, with a wide-ranging press conference from US president-elect Donald Trump, along with updates on the latest round of Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks, and news from Meta, Nvidia, and Anthropic getting plenty of ink. #1- More threats of tariffs and annexation from Trump: Trump said he could use economic — and possibly military — action to acquire Greenland and take control of the Panama Canal, threatening to tariff Denmark “at a very high level” if it refuses, and separate tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which it also said it could annex through “economic force.” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took to X later to say “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” in response to Trump’s comments. Trump also revealed a USD 20 bn investment planned by Emirati developer Damac Properties in US data centers, saying Damac’s founder Hussain Sajwani was inspired by Trump’s election to make the commitment. Sajwani said he’d been waiting four years to ramp up investments in the US. We have more on the story in the news well, below. The press conference got a lot of ink: FT | Reuters | NPR | AP | CNN #2- Also from Trump Land, his new Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said he is “hopeful” for some good news from the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks taking place in Doha before Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, Reuters quotes him as saying. Trump again threatened that “all hell will break out in the Middle East" if Hamas does not release the hostages by the time he takes office during his presser. PLUS- Several stories on the tech and AI front are making the rounds: Facebook owner Meta shelved a US fact-checking program and curbed restrictions on discussions around contentious topics on its platforms in response to pressure from conservatives. (Reuters)Nvidia’s shares slid 6.2% after an unveiling of a new product lineup — including a new USD 3k desktop PC — failed to reassure investors about a near-term return. (Bloomberg)AI startup Anthropic is closing in on a USD 2 bn investment that would value it at USD 60 bn, only two months after securing an additional USD 4 bn investment from ecommerce giant Amazon. (WSJ) Get Enterprise daily The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe here ***You’re reading EnterpriseAM UAE, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about the UAE, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Monday through Friday by 7am UAE time.EnterpriseAM UAE is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Mashreq.Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM UAE. Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on UAE@enterpriseAM.com .DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the MENA climate and logistics industries?*** MARKET WATCH- Opec sees production dip in December, driven by UAE cuts: Opec’s crude output dropped in December by 120k bbl / d to 27.05 mn bbl / d, primarily on the back of supply cuts from the UAE, according to a Bloomberg survey. The UAE slashed its production to about 3.2 mn bbl / d and trimmed oil exports to an 18-month low. The decline in these allocations is expected to continue throughout January and February, companies set to receive the shipments told Bloomberg. REMEMBER- State-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) reportedly decreased crude oil cargo allocations for certain Asian customers, cutting volumes by up to 230k bbl / d across various grades, in a bid to adhere to Opec+’s strategy to stabilize market prices. A plan to hike the UAE’s quota by an additional 300k bbl/d was also postponed to April 2025, after Opec+ decided to delay a planned increase in production last month. The UAE has been hoping to increase its capacity, and is on track to hit its 5 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) oil capacity target — originally set for 2027 — by the end of 2025 or early 2026. CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR- The 1 Bn Followers Summit will take place between 11-13 January at Jumeirah Emirates Towers at the DIFC in Dubai. The event will feature over 250 speakers, including top content creators and industry experts, and will feature discussions on technology, content strategies, and the economic impact of content creation.The Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW) will take place between 12-18 January at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The event features 11 events gathering policymakers, industry leaders, and youth to discuss global sustainability solutions and foster collaborations.Among the biggest events of the week: The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Assembly will take place between 11-13 January in Abu Dhabi. The event will gather global leaders and decision-makers to discuss the renewable energy transition and address challenges to energy security and financing. Featured in the agenda: An International Renewable Energy Agency Youth Forum, which will see interactive sessions, open dialogues, and thematic workshops for youth to contribute to renewable energy deployment and sustainable development.Other events include: 13 January (Monday): Global Climate Finance Annual Meeting. 14-16 January (Tuesday-Thursday): World Future Energy Summit and Youth 4 Sustainability (Y4S) Forum and Hub. 15 January (Wednesday): Women in Sustainability, Environment, and Renewable Energy (WiSER) Forum. 16 January (Thursday): Green Hydrogen Summit and Zayed Sustainability Prize Forum & Investor Connect. The Security Leader’s Summit will take place between 14-16 January at the Dubai World Trade Center. The event features sessions that showcase the latest security strategies and technological solutions, as well as discussions addressing the most prominent security threats.Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

ADFD expands its Maldivian airport funding: The Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) will provide an additional loan of AED 147 mn to support the development of Velana International Airport in the Maldives, state news agency Wam reports. The fund provided an earlier loan of AED 183.5 mn in 2017 for the project’s initial phases.The project aims to expand the airport to accommodate up to 26 passenger gates and a building dedicated to international flights, which can handle 7.5 mn passengers annually. ADFD and the Maldives go back over 40 years: Since 1976, ADFD supported numerous projects in the Maldives, targeting different sectors such as transportation, energy, tourism, and housing.The fund has been ramping up its foreign investments: The ADFD finalized a AED 92 mn loan agreement with Rwanda’s government earlier this month to enhance its local water systems. The fund also agreed to allocate AED 183.5 mn to finance the first phase of Ivory Coast’s Social Housing Program in Abidjan. Plus: it will help finance Albania’s new nationwide street surveillance system.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the UAE’s hydrocarbon sector to grow 6.7% next year, up from just 0.3% growth this year on the back of Opec+’s oil production cuts, according to its GCC Economic Prospects report (pdf). This comes as the oil cartel plans to unwind oil production cuts as of 2Q 2025, with the UAE also given a higher quota to increase production by 300k bbl / d gradually from April 2025. The IMF sees non-oil growth coming in at 5.3% this year and slowing slightly to 4.5% next year. Meanwhile, the Fund sees overall GDP growing at 4% this year, reverting to its initial forecast after revising it downwards to 3.7% in its latest Article IV consultation report. The Fund also revised upwards its forecast for next year to 5.1%, up from 5% earlier. It maintained its headline inflation forecast for this year at 2.3%, and for next year at 2.1%, as well as its forecast for an 8.8% current account surplus. THE REGIONAL PICTURE- GCC economies are also set to benefit from the dual momentum of oil sector recovery and strong non-oil sector growth, according to the report. Real GDP for the region is projected to rebound by 1.4% this year, from 0.8% growth in 2023, expanding further to 3.5% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026. The medium-term outlook remains favorable, with non-oil sector growth underpinned by reform implementation and diversification efforts. The fiscal stance is expected to tighten over the medium term for all GCC countries, while public debt is projected to remain “moderate and stable” in most of the region over the next four years. The IMF recommends additional fiscal consolidation, while focusing on non-hydrocarbon revenue mobilization such as boosting tax revenue, rationalizing the public wage bill, and continuing subsidy reforms. The IMF stresses the need to set fiscal anchors and operational rules in the region through frameworks and risk statements to avoid excessive deficits and unsustainable debt. On the other hand, monetary policy transmission in the GCC needs to improve through liquidity management frameworks and by deepening domestic financial markets through local currency sovereign debt issuances, as well as green bond and sukuk issuances.

INVESTMENT- Abu Dhabi’s tech startup ecosystem Hub71 launched the Angel Investor Support Package to promote the growth of angel networks and facilitate the establishment of legal investment structures for angel investors, according to a press release. The package includes a financial incentive of AED 150k aimed at encouraging investments in early-stage startups registered at Hub71.The details: Key features of the Angel Investor Support Package include two years of office space, discounted licensing and setup fees for creating special purpose vehicles in the ADGM, and access to centralized back-office support services such as legal and audit assistance. Additionally, Hub71 will set up digital infrastructure that allows investors to vote on startup projects and manage their portfolios effectively.Four angel networks have already joined the initiative including Falcon Valley, which targets early-stage disruptive ventures; UAE Angels Capital Investment, which specializes in high-growth seed and early-stage startups; Qora71, dedicated to mentoring startups; and the Emirates Angels Investors Association, which has invested in notable startups like Takalam and Mindtales.FINTECH- MNT-Halan enters the UAE market with Halan Advance launch: Egyptian fintech leader MNT-Halan has expanded into the UAE with the rollout of its early salary access service, Halan Advance, targeting the Emirates’ over 3.7 mn underbanked expatriate community, the fintech unicorn said in a statement (pdf). MNT-Halan has a target of building its customer base in the country to 250k by the end of next year.What they said: “The GCC is a powerful hub for financial innovation, and launching in the UAE marks a significant step in our regional expansion,” MNT-Halan CEO Mounir Nakhla said. DEVELOPMENT FINANCE-Abu Dhabi Fund for Development loans AED 92 mn to Rwanda: The Abu Dhabi Fund for Development finalized a loan agreement worth AED 92 mn with Rwanda’s government to enhance water systems at the Karenge Water Treatment Plant, Wam reports. The funding will support efforts to expand the plant’s capacity to 36k cubic meters, addressing the country’s growing water needs.HEALTHCARE-Maldivian patients to access healthcare at Burjeel Holdings' flagship facility: ADX-listed Burjeel Holdings partnered with Aasandha Company, the state-owned entity running the Maldives' government health ins. scheme, to provide Maldivian patients with advanced medical treatments at Burjeel Medical City in Abu Dhabi, according to a press release (pdf). Maldivian patients covered by the National Social Health Insurance Scheme will now be able to access services such as multi-organ transplants, advanced oncology, orthopedics, and cardiology at the facility.AVIATION-#1- Aircraft management firm Comlux opened a service and maintenance center at Dubai’s Al Maktoum International Airport in partnership with Mohammed Bin Rashid Aerospace Hub, which will also double as a regional headquarters for the Swiss company, according to a press release. The 20k sq m facility will offer light maintenance, hangarage, AOG services, cabin detailing, and aircraft cleaning services.#2- ExecuJet to offer aircraft livery services at Al Maktoum Airport: ExecuJet MRO Services, Dassault Aviation’s aircraft maintenance arm, is set to begin offering aircraft paint and livery services at Dubai’s Al Maktoum International Airport, according to a press release. The new facility, being built by Satys Aerospace, is expected to begin operations in 1Q 2025. The services will cater to the business, commercial, and VVIP aviation sectors. The facility will have the capacity to paint up to 35 aircraft annually and can accommodate business jets, Boeing BBJ, Airbus ACJ, and commercial aircraft up to the size of Boeing 737-10 Max and Airbus A321XL.#3- RoyalJet set to add up to nine Airbus ACJ320neo aircraft to its fleet: Abu Dhabi-based private charter airline RoyalJet signed an MoU with Airbus Corporate Jets (ACJ) to purchase at least three ACJ320neo aircraft, according to a press release. The airline could purchase six more of the same aircraft under a purchase right clause in the agreement.#4- Skyports-commissioned GHD designed the UAE’s first dedicated vertiport at Dubai International Airport as part of Dubai’s aerial taxi network, set to launch by 2026, according to a press release. The vertiport features two eVTOL landing pads and charging stations, in addition to accommodation facilities and a multideck carpark for passengers.REMEMBER- Plans are underway to launch flying taxis in Dubai as soon as next year: Dubai's Road and Transport Authority inked an agreement in February with electric aircraft developer Joby Aviation to launch air taxi services in the UAE by early 2026. The first of four vertiports in Dubai will kick off operations in 1Q 2026.BANKING-#1- Al Maryah Community Bank (Mbank) partnered with AE Coin to allow its customers to make transactions using the UAE’s first stablecoin through Mbank-powered AEC wallets, according to a press release. The digital wallet facilitates everyday transactions, including money transfers, paying merchants, and converting AE Coin to AED.REMEMBER- AE Coin is the UAE’s first AED-pegged stablecoin approved by the Central Bank of the UAE. This came after the Financial Services Regulatory Authority issued a regulatory framework for the issuance of stablecoins in the ADGM.#2- Standard Chartered aims to expand its UAE private banking team by 20%, hiring seven new bankers so far as part of the move, the lender said in a statement picked up by Reuters and Bloomberg. The hiring spree is part of the bank’s strategy to double its investments in wealth management over the next five years.SUSTAINABILITY- An AED 86 mn water reservoir in Dubai’s Hatta went online, boasting a capacity for 30 mn imperial gallons of desalinated water, the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority said in a statement. With two new reservoirs launched in Lusaily and Enkhali and another 120 mn gallon-one being built in Hassyan, the authority targets to boost Dubai’s storage capacity to 1.1 bn gallons of desalinated water by 1Q 2025.PAYMENTS-Abu Dhabi Investment Office (Adio) partnered with Mastercard to launch the Digital Partnership Program in Abu Dhabi to digitize government services in the emirate through the use of fintech solutions, according to a press release. The program will also offer support to SMEs and fintech companies through Abu Dhabi's tech ecosystem Hub71. It also targets to facilitate pension payments by offering prepaid cards to the unbanked. ALSO- The agreement will see Adio collaborating with Mastercard's Advanced AI Center of Excellence to develop AI and blockchain products aimed at high-growth sectors, such as gaming.ENERGY-Brazilian electric motors manufacturer Weg will supply Adnoc with technical equipment for its USD 3 bn oil pipeline, Trade Arabia reports. Weg will provide Adnoc with a comprehensive drive package by September 2025 — including flameproof electric motors, variable speed drives, and transformers — to ensure the optimal operation of horizontal centrifugal pumps critical to the infrastructure. The 300 km-pipeline will transport crude oil from Jebel Dhanna in Abu Dhabi to the Fujairah oil terminal, with a capacity of 1.5 mn bbl / d.TRANSPORT-EV manufacturer Switch Mobility will begin pilot runs of its electric buses in the UAE and Saudi Arabia by the summer of 2025, with plans for a full commercial rollout in the GCC by 4Q 2025, according to a press release. STARTUPS-Web3 communication network Dechat raised USD 1 mn in a funding round led by Mindspace, Wamda reports. The funds will fuel the company’s growth, develop its technology infrastructure, and expand its user base. It will also use this money to drive new initiatives and enhance its R&D activities to develop innovative solutions.LOGISTICS- Abu Dhabi Airport started construction on the East Midfield cargo terminal (EMCT) at Zayed International Airport (AUH), a 90K sqm facility designed to handle 1.5 mn tonnes of cargo annually, according to a statement. While no investment details or timeline were provided, the EMCT is part of ongoing infrastructure upgrades, following a strong performance in 1H 2024 with a 33.5% increase in passengers at AUH.The details:The EMCT will integrate with the Abu Dhabi Airports Freezone (ADAFZ) — specifically at Al Falah district — offering a full range of services such as consolidation, warehousing, distribution, and re-export.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth forecast for the UAE, projecting GDP growth of 3.7% in 2024 and 4.5% in the medium term, down from an earlier forecast of 4% in 2024 in May, according to the 2024 IMF Article IV consultation report for the UAE. Still, the Fund expects growth to remain strong, driven by ongoing non-oil sector growth, government reforms, public spending, and increased oil production due to the Opec+’s hike of its production quota in 2025.The IMF also revised its growth forecast downwards slightly for 2025 to 5%, down from 5.1% earlier. Fiscal and external surpluses are expected to remain strong in 2024, fueled by high oil prices. Tax reforms are likely to support the fiscal surplus, though the current account surplus could dip due to higher reform-driven imports and stabilizing oil prices.The banking sector remains resilient: Banks are seeing strengthened capital buffers, fewer non-performing loans, though they remain elevated in the construction sector, and steady credit growth, even with higher interest rates. Capital inflows are also pumping up reserves and liquidity, contributing to rising real estate prices — especially in Dubai’s high-end market.Geopolitical risks such as tensions, economic slowdowns, and commodity volatility could impact growth, but sovereign buffers help mitigate these vulnerabilities. The IMF also highlights the importance of accelerating climate reforms to address long-term decarbonization challenges. Policy recommendation: The IMF urges the UAE to strengthen macroprudential frameworks, finalize real estate exposure standards, and consider countercyclical capital buffers.

The Middle East region’s economic growth is expected to slow to 2.1% in 2024, down from an earlier estimate of 2.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest regional economic outlook (pdf). Next year’s growth forecast was also trimmed to 4%, driven by insufficient foreign direct investment amid regional wars and high debt levels in mid-income economies.The IMF attributed the slowdown to regional conflicts, particularly the escalated tensions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Sudan, impacting stability and potentially creating “lasting economic losses,” according to the report — a projection echoed by IMF Mena and Central Asia director, Jihad Azour, in an interview with Bloomberg.Some policy recs advise caution: States around the conflict zone, including Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq, “need to be protective to preserve their macroeconomic stability,” Azour said. However, “crucial structural reforms could face rising social discontent and political resistance, hindering policy execution and constraining growth.”Oil cuts are also to blame: Oil production cuts imposed by Opec+ are also squeezing revenues for oil-reliant Mena economies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. The oil management alliance recently delayed a planned supply increase to December, citing weak demand from China and increased production elsewhere.But the non-oil sector remains a bright spot: “Growth of the non-oil sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council has been resilient and has been driving the growth for the last couple of years,” Azour said.The UAE is set to lead GCC growth in 2025, driven by an expected 4-5% growth in its non-oil economy thanks to the “effectiveness of the country’s economic policies,” Azour said separately, according to Wam. He highlighted investments in tech, renewables, and green initiatives as key growth drivers for the Emirates.Less gloomy on the global front: The IMF revised downwards its forecast for global growth next year to 3.2%, a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from its July estimate, on the back of escalating geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism.MARKETS THIS MORNING- Asian markets are a sea of red amid an influx of earnings in the West and economic data from the region, which pushed Japan’s Nikkei down more than 2%. Over on Wall Street, futures indicate a better open after the Nasdaq and S&P 500 notched their worst days in nearly two months. ADX9,328+0.0% (YTD: -2.6%)DFM4,591-0.3% (YTD: +13.1%)Nasdaq Dubai UAE203807-0.7% (YTD: -0.9%)USD : AED CBUAEBuy 3.67Sell 3.67EIBOR4.8% o/n4.4% 1 yrTASI12,022+0.0% (YTD: +0.5%)EGX30 30,658+0.9% (YTD: +23.2%)S&P 5005,706-1.9% (YTD: +19.6%)FTSE 1008,110-0.6% (YTD: +4.9%)Euro Stoxx 504,828-1.2% (YTD: +6.8%)Brent crudeUSD 73.16+0.8%Natural gas (Nymex)USD 2.72+0.4%GoldUSD 2,755.2+0.2%BTCUSD 70,159-2.9% (YTD: 66%)THE CLOSING BELL-The DFM fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 528.1 mn. The index is up 13.1% YTD.In the green: Takaful Emarat (+14.4%), National Industries Group Holding (+10.1%) and Al Ramz Corporation Investment and Development (+4.2%).In the red: Emirates Investment Bank (-10%), Salik Company (-4.6%) and Ithmaar Holding (-2.4%). Over on the ADX, the index remained flat on turnover of AED 1.5 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai closed down 0.7%.

Good morning, lovely people. It’s finally the end of a long, busy week on many fronts. The dominant theme of today’s issue is M&A, with e& (finally) completing its acquisition of a stake in PPF Telecom Group, and Shamal Holding snapping up a majority stake in The Espresso Lab. Plus: We have more real estate figures for 3Q 2024, news that Abu Dhabi is getting a copper trading hub, and a fresh batch of earnings. WEATHER- It’s more of the same across the UAE today, with most areas seeing clouds with a chance of rain in western and eastern regions. Dubai will be mostly sunny with the mercury hitting 36°C, before cooling to an overnight low of 28°C. Over in Abu Dhabi, the mercury peaks at 32°C before cooling to 30°C. ADNH Catering’s order book was 15x oversubscribed and was fully covered before the end of the first day of trading on the back of strong interest from foreign investors and local retail investors, the company’s CEO Clive Cowley told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 8:56). Cowley’s comments came following ADNH Catering’s tepid debut on the ADX, which saw shares flat on the first day of trading. REFRESHER- ADNH Catering raised AED 864 mn after taking a 40% stake to the market and pricing it at the upper end of the AED 0.91-0.96 range on which it had guided. HAPPENING TODAY- #1- The International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) council meeting is on its second and final day in Abu Dhabi. The meeting will see the agency discuss energy transition plans, reviewing their program and budget, and publishing their annual report of the director-general. #2- It’s day four of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Annual Meetings: The world’s finance ministers, central bank governors, and other big names in finance and policy — including representatives from the UAE — are in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Annual Meetings. The meetings wrap up on Saturday. Check out the full meeting schedule on the event’s official website.ICYMI- Our Planet Finance from earlier this week laid out the big themes to look out for and the global challenges underpinning the conversation. WATCH THIS SPACE- #1- Masdar vies for Saudi solar projects: Masdar is among the shortlisted bidders chosen by the Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) for solar projects as part of its national renewables program, aiming to attract over SAR 8 bn (c. USD 2.1 bn) in investments, according to a SPPC statement. Masdar is shortlisted for three projects: The 2 GW Al-Sadawi Project, as part of a consortium with state-owned Korea Electric Power Corporation and China’s GD Power Development Co; the 400 MW Al Henakiyah2 Project, as part of a consortium with Korea Electric Power Corporation and Saudi conglomerate Nesma Company ; the 300 MW Rabigh2 Project, as part of a consortium with Korea Electric Power Corporation and Nesma Company.The details: The consortia will execute the projects under a build, own, and operate model, allowing them to retain 100% ownership, with each project involving a 25-year power purchase agreement with SPPC. #2- Biometric payments coming to gov’t centers: Dubai’s Department of Finance struck agreements with eight banks, fintechs, and Digital Dubai to bring biometric payments to the emirate, alongside “smart installment plans” for government fees, according to the Dubai Media Office. The pilot phase of the biometric payments system will see it rolled out across government service centers for the payment of government service fees, while smart installment services have already started with two installment service companies tapped so far.Who’s involved? The eight agreements were inked with Digital Dubai, buy now pay later firm Tabby, payments firm Tamara, and local banks including Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Commercial Bank of Dubai, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD, and our friends at Mashreq. #3- More development finance from the UAE? The UAE signed two agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to contribute to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust Fund (RSTF), on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF, according to a ministry X post. The size of the commitment was not disclosed, and it is unclear whether this commitment will be in addition to the USD 200 mn each the UAE pledged to the RSTF and PRGT in 2023.About the funds: The PRGT provides zero-interest financing to low-income countries, while the RSTF is geared towards low- and middle-income countries for the purpose of building resilience against external shocks. #4- The government has earmarked over 2k products for local manufacturing, sparking AED 143 bn in interest as part of its initiative to localize production and develop the UAE’s supply chains and hit its industrial target of AED 300 bn by 2031, Omar Suwaina Al Suwaidi, undersecretary of the Industry Ministry, told Asharq Business (watch, runtime, 4:45). The government has allocated AED 11 bn to fund local production under the Make it in the Emirates initiative, Al Suwaidi said, noting that investments in the local industry hit AED 55 bn in 2023. DATA POINTS- #1- The UAE accounts for 2.2% of global maritime transport in 2024 with a fleet size of 1.4k ships and tankers, according to a United Nations Trade and Development Organization report (pdf). The GCC country was ranked 16th in the world in terms of fleet commercial value, accounting for 1.7% of the total global value. It also came in 12th place globally in terms of fleet ownership by capacity in 2024 with a total of 51.3 mn tons. #2- The Dubai aviation sector is projected to contribute AED 196 bn (c. USD 53 bn) worth of gross value to the economy, equating to 32% of the emirate's GDP, by 2030, an increase from AED 137 bn reported in 2023, according to a report (pdf) from Emirates Group, Dubai Airports, and research firm Oxford Economics.The core impact of the sector is expected to grow to AED 132 bn, accounting for 22% of GDP, while supporting approximately 386k jobs. Overall, the total number of jobs in the aviation sector is forecasted to rise to 816k representing one-quarter of all jobs in Dubai by 2030. HAPPENING NEXT WEEK- The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) will offer up to AED 11 bn in four M-Bills at an auction next Monday, 28 October, according to a statement (pdf). The bills — three of which are tap issuances — will be released on 30 October, with the AED 3 bn M-Bill having a tenor of 28 days, the AED 2 bn bill having a tenor of 42 days, a separate AED 2 bn issuance with 126 days, and a final AED 4 bn issuance with a tenor of 238 days.Decoding central bank speak: M-bills are short-term securities issued in AED by the CBUAE with no interest. The bonds typically have maturity dates of one to 12 months and are not retrievable through any other listing. A tap issuance gives the CBUAE flexibility to adjust money supply by continuing to sell bills beyond the initial auction. THE BIG STORY ABROAD- Coverage in the foreign press is still seesawing between the US presidential race, the Brics summit — which wrapped yesterday — and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. On the Brics front, most are taking note of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to show resilience against the West more than two years into its invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing Western sanctions against it. Putin also warned of an escalating Middle East war and pushed for a two-state solution and ceasefire in Gaza. (BBC | Reuters | AP)The country is pushing for a depository and clearing system for Brics countries that can deepen financial cooperation outside of the West, though it’s unclear how interested Brics countries are in joining such a system, Bloomberg reports. Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan was at the summit — a first for the UAE since joining Brics — and highlighted the need for collective action on global challenges and the importance of cooperation with “friends of Brics,” as well as de-escalation in Lebanon and a ceasefire in Gaza, during a speech. Another round of ceasefire talks in the works? Israel’s Mossad chief is set to meet with officials from the US and Qatar in the coming days in Qatar, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said as he touched down in London after a trip to the Middle East. Blinken is set to meet with foreign ministers from Jordan, Lebanon and the UAE today, Bloomberg reports.The caveat: It’s not clear if Hamas is sold on yet another round of ceasefire negotiations, after several fell through earlier this year with both Israel and Hamas accusing each other of difficult terms and a lack of seriousness, the New York Times reports. IN MORE US ELECTIONS NEWS- Donald Trump has gained a marginal lead over Kamala Harris in two polls by the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal in more signs that the race is tight as ever. Meanwhile, Harris is holding a big rally in Georgia with former president Barack Obama and other celebrities, while Trump rallies in Arizona. (CNN | The Guardian | WaPo)BUSINESS HEADLINES GETTING ATTENTION- Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick will be its chair after current chair James Gorman leaves his post at the end of the year. (Reuters)Tesla’s shares closed up 22% yesterday, adding USD 150 bn to its market value in a single day, following strong earnings and a positive sales forecast. (The Guardian)The US is still looking to edge China in the minerals supply chain race with plans for a massive new mine in Nevada and extended tax breaks for some miners. (FT) Get Enterprise daily The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe here ***You’re reading EnterpriseAM UAE, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about the UAE, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Monday through Friday by 7am UAE time.EnterpriseAM UAE is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Mashreq. Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM UAE.Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on UAE@enterpriseAM.com .DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the MENA climate and logistics industries?***

Good morning, lovely people. It’s another busy newsday, dominated by IPO news as LuLu Group lays out its plans to tap the ADX in November and Dubizzle updates its syndicate for an IPO in 2025. 🌫️WEATHER- We could be getting more rain and fog across the UAE today, according to the National Center of Meteorology’s forecast (here, pdf, and here). Cumulus clouds in the eastern and southern regions could see scattered showers, and a fog is setting in over Abu Dhabi and Al Ain. Temperatures will hit 37°C in Dubai today, before cooling to an overnight low of 31°C. Meanwhile in Abu Dhabi, the mercury will peak at 32°C, with an overnight low of 30°C. WATCH THIS SPACE- #1- State-owned Masdar plans to focus its renewables efforts across the Middle East, Europe, Asia, and the US with a fairly equal split as it looks to increase its wind and solar capacity to 100 GW by 2030, the company’s CEO Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi told the Financial Times in an interview. The move would place Masdar above rivals like Spanish Iberdrola, French Engie, and German RWE.The breakdown: The company sees 30-35% of its power generation coming from the Middle East, 20% from Europe, and 20-25% from the US, in addition to Asia, Al Ramahi said, adding that the company seeks an equal split between solar and wind projects.REMEMBER- The Abu Dhabi-based company has been doubling down on global expansion. Earlier this year, it agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Spanish power firm Endesa’s solar power installations subsidiary EPGE Solar for AED 3.3 bn. It also agreed to acquire Greek renewables giant Terna Energy. In the US, Masdar acquired a 50% stake in Terra-Gen, a significant player in the renewable sector. It also owns a 49% stake in the UK's Dogger Bank South project, set to be the world’s largest offshore wind farm upon completion. #2- Mubadala is close to acquiring a minority stake in healthtech firm Zelis that would value it at some USD 17 bn, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The sovereign wealth fund is finalizing the details of a transaction that would see it invest a mix of equity and debt for a minority stake in the firm from its owners, Bain and Parthenon Capital, with other co-investors set to join in the coming weeks. The two owners were reportedly looking to sell a 20-25% stake in the company. #3- The Abu Dhabi Film Commission is raising its rebate on TV and film productions to 35%, up from 30%, as of 1 January 2025, Variety reports, citing statements from Abu Dhabi Film Commission chief Sameer Al Jaberi. The details of the rebate and whether it will be capped will be announced closer to the date of its implementation, Al Jaberi said. The rationale: “From an economic perspective the money we’ve spent on the rebate [over the past decade] has had an economic multiplier effect of roughly three times the investment,” Al Jaber told Variety. The goal is to also encourage filmmaking year-round in the emirate, relying less on seasonal weather, Al Jaberi told the National separately. Background: Abu Dhabi has been making a push into the filmmaking industry, with more than 150 international productions filmed there since the incentive program was launched in 2013. The move to hike the rebate also comes as competitors in the region — like Saudi Arabia — offer their own rebates, with KSA offering 40% rebates since 2022. The emirate is also building production facilities — dubbed twofour54 Studios — which it plans to open this time next year, the National reports. #4- Ras Al Khaimah Digital Assets Oasis is set to roll out a legal framework for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), with details to be unveiled at the DAO Legal Clinic on 25 October, CoinTelegraph reports. The framework aims to clarify the legal and governance requirements for DAOs establishing operations in the emirate, specifically addressing tax obligations and benefits. It will also facilitate property ownership for both on-chain and off-chain assets and provide legal protection against personal liability for DAO founders, members, and contributors.SOUND SMART- A decentralized autonomous organization is an organizational structure where decision-making lies with token holders rather than a central authority, operating on a bottom-up management approach. DAOs use blockchain tech to record all votes and activities transparently. PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS- #1- It’s a wrap for Al Khail Road upgrades: Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) completed developments on Al Khail Road, including the construction of five bridges and road widening at seven different locations, according to a statement from RTA. The project claims to cut travel time by 30% and increases accommodation capacity to 19.6k vehicles per hour.#2- More Indian passport holders are now eligible for visas on arrival to the UAE, after the Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs, and Port Security expanded the policy to include holders of valid tourist visas from the EU, US, or UK, state news agency Wam reports. To qualify, travelers must ensure their visa and passport are valid for at least six months. SIGN OF THE TIMES- You can soon get access to a virtual lawyer in the UAE: The Justice Ministry is planning to launch a “virtual lawyer” designed to assist legal institutions in creating pleadings for simple cases, according to a ministry X post. The virtual lawyer will use a Unified National Legislative Texts Database set to be established by the ministry, with law firms looking to use the lawyer required to contribute to the database. Key features will include interaction with human judges, voice-to-text conversion, and document submission capabilities.When will it launch? The pilot version is scheduled to go live sometime in 2025. DATA POINT-#1- Dubai and Abu Dhabi tied for first place in the new ease of entry metric introduced to Kearney’s Global Cities Index. The metric gauges the ability to attract and retain foreign talent. The Global Cities Outlook saw Dubai rise by 10 ranks in innovation, mainly driven by a boost in the private investments metric.#2- Dubai's property market saw a record high of over 18k transactions in September, Property Monitor said in a press release. The real estate intelligence firm reports that 73% of these transactions were for off-plan properties. The figure surpasses the previous record of 17.1k transactions in May and signals a continued upward trend, with total sales year-to-date exceeding 131k.Residential transactions accounted for over 95% of September's total, with Emaar leading off-plan sales with 2.3k registrations, followed by Damac Properties with 1.5k and Sobha with 810. HAPPENING TODAY- #1- President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will attend the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, which kicks off today and runs until Thursday. This marks the UAE's first participation in the summit since its formal admission as a member last year.#2- The Alternative investment Summit is on its second and final day at the Jumeirah Emirates Towers. The event will bring together key decision makers and professionals interested in the alternative investment space, with Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson set to attend.#3- The UAE is participating in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Annual Meetings, which kicked off yesterday in Washington, DC. The UAE Finance Ministry will host the UAE Banks Reception on the sidelines to build connections between the UAE’s public and private sectors and international financial institutions. The meetings wrap up on Saturday.What to expect: Yesterday’s Planet Finance laid out the big themes to look out for and the global challenges structuring the conversation.#4- The Premier Port Development Middle East & Africa Forum wraps up today at the Movenpick Grand Al Bustan, Dubai. The forum brings together industry leaders and key stakeholders to discuss the latest trends and strategies on the ports infrastructure in the region.#5- The Roads, Bridges, Tunnels MENA Conference wraps up todayat the Movenpick Grand Al Bustan, Dubai. The conference focuses on developments in the construction sector, featuring discussions on market trends, construction technologies, sustainable building materials, and potential investments in the region. HAPPENING THIS WEEK- The Foreseeing Government Audit Future Conference will take place on 24 October at Madinat Jumeirah, Wam reports. Organized by the Financial Audit Authority, the event will be held under the theme “Tomorrow’s Auditor” and will gather key figures, senior officials, and experts in auditing, finance, and economics to discuss the future of government auditing. Get Enterprise daily The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe here ***You’re reading EnterpriseAM UAE, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about the UAE, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Monday through Friday by 7am UAE time.EnterpriseAM UAE is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Mashreq. Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM UAE.Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on UAE@enterpriseAM.com .DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the MENA climate and logistics industries?*** THE BIG STORY ABROAD- The US elections and attempts towards a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon are once again pushing business news to the bottom of digital front pages. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s return to the Middle East in hopes of securing a ceasefire — for the eleventh time — is getting attention, as other US officials held talks in Beirut for conditions for a ceasefire. It’s not clear where Blinken will be holding ceasefire talks in the region. The situation on the ground: Israel continued to strike Beirut and Syria yesterday, killing at least four near one of Lebanon’s largest public hospitals and two in a missile attack on a car in Syria. Crowds of Palestinians were evacuated from the Jabaliya refugee camp, where around 400 people have been killed over the past two weeks, while over in Lebanon, Israel is setting its sights on a hospital it says houses Hezbollah money — a claim yet to be backed up by any sort of evidence. (Reuters | Bloomberg | CNN | The Guardian) Also still getting attention: The US elections money race, in which Kamala Harris is emerging as a victor with some USD 1 bn raised in three months, surpassing the USD 894 mn Donald Trump has gathered since January 2023 for his campaign. (Financial Times)Elon Musk’s pledge to hand out USD 1 mn checks to voters signing for his free-speech and gun rights petition is also seeing some scrutiny in the foreign press, with legal experts weighing in on whether the move could be seen as an illegal way of paying people to vote.

Crossing the USD 100 tn mark: Global public debt is on track to surpass USD 100 tn by year’s end, representing 93% of global GDP, the IMF said in a blog ahead of the full release of its October 2024 Fiscal Monitor report, which is due to be published in full next week. Public debt is also set to exceed 100% by 2030, 10 percentage points above 2019 levels before the pandemic ushered in higher fiscal spending. (** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)Worst-case scenario: Slower economic growth, tighter borrowing conditions, fiscal “slippages,” and economic and political uncertainty could see global debt soaring to 115% of global GDP within three years, the IMF says. Higher uncertainty in major economies such as the US could also create ripple effects increasing borrowing costs for more vulnerable countries. Driving the rise in fiscal debt: The IMF warns that, although two-thirds of countries are expected to see their public debt levels “stabilize or decline,” the debt outlook for many others may be “worse than expected.” Budget demands due to aging populations and healthcare needs, the green transition, and geopolitical uncertainty have “tilted” the political discourse towards greater fiscal spending, placing added pressures on state coffers. Countries also tend to be overly optimistic with regards to their debt forecasts and consistently underestimate future debt burdens. Also a culprit? Unidentified debt: Countries are also facing a pileup of what the IMF calls “unidentified debt,” which the multilateral lender says has historically stood at 1-1.5% of GDP on average. That rate “increases sharply during periods of financial stress,” the IMF notes. Unidentified debt “stems from contingent liabilities and fiscal risks government face, of which most are related to losses in state-owned enterprises.”REMEMBER- Emerging markets are also facing a wall of debt that many could struggle to repay, with a handful of countries at risk of defaulting over the next decade, S&P Global has said.As inflation and interest rates come down, it’s time to get moving on fiscal improvements: Cooling inflation and the start of the global monetary easing cycle mean that economies are in a better position today to absorb adverse effects from budget cuts, the IMF says. Economies should make use of this window to roll out budget cuts while seeking a “judicious mix of people- and growth-focused fiscal measures” that balance the needs of low income individuals and economic output and growth, the multilateral lender said. Most economies will have to cut their budgets by about 3.8% of GDP over the next six years to see improvement, with China and the US requiring stronger measures to stabilize public debt.MARKETS THIS MORNING- Asian markets are down in early trading this morning, mirroring declines yesterday on Wall Street. The Nikkei is down the most (-2.0%), but the Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, and ASX are all in the red. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures are little changed in overnight trading, while the FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC 40 all look set to open in the red later this morning. ADX9,283-0.2% (YTD: -3.1%)DFM4,470+0.3% (YTD: +10.1%)Nasdaq Dubai UAE203,791+0.4% (YTD: -1.3%)USD : AED CBUAEBuy 3.67Sell 3.67EIBOR4.7% o/n4.2% 1 yrTASI12,002+0.4% (YTD: +0.3%)EGX30 30,584+1.0% (YTD: +22.9%)S&P 5005,825-0.6% (YTD: +22.4%)FTSE 1008,249-0.5% (YTD: +6.7%)Euro Stoxx 504,947-1.9% (YTD: +9.4%)Brent crudeUSD 74.69-3.6%Natural gas (Nymex)USD 2.50+0.2%GoldUSD 2,679+0.5%BTCUSD 66,580+0.9% (YTD: +57.6%)THE CLOSING BELL-The DFM rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 360.9 mn. The index is up 10.1% YTD.In the green: Agility The Public Warehousing Company (+4.3%), Chimera S&P UAE Shariah ETF (+3.1%) and Al Salam Sudan (+2.8%).In the red: Emirates Reem Investments Company (-9.9%), Emirates Investment Bank (-7.4%) and Takaful Emarat (-6.7%). Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.2% on turnover of AED 1.07 bn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai closed up 0.4%.CORPORATE ACTIONS-Sharjah Islamic Bank amends shareholder policy: Sharjah Islamic Bank updated its shareholder policy, broadening an exemption that once applied solely to the Sharjah government, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The change now permits entities affiliated with the Sharjah government and the Sheikh Sultan bin Muhammed bin Saqr Al Qasimi Endowment to hold more than 3% of the bank's capital.

IMF holds global growth forecast steady: The International Monetary Fund maintained its 2024 global growth outlook at 3.2% in its updated World Economic Outlook (pdf) and slightly upgraded its 2025 outlook to 3.3%. The regional outlook: The Fund slashed Saudi Arabia’s growth outlook for the year by 0.9 percentage points to 1.7% and next year’s by 1.3 percentage points to 4.7%, mainly due to the extension of oil production cuts. This downgrade dragged the regional outlook for 2024 to 2.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from April’s forecast.Where do major economies stand? Both the US and Japan saw their outlook slashed — the US saw its 2024 forecast trimmed 0.1 percentage points to 2.6% thanks to “a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth reflected moderating consumption and a negative contribution from net trade.” Meanwhile, the Fund sees the Japanese economy growing at a 0.7% clip this year, down 0.2 percentage points from April’s forecast due to “temporary supply disruptions linked to the shutdown of a major automobile plant in the first quarter.”It’s a different story for the Eurozone, which saw its 2024 growth revised upwards 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, mainly driven by a more optimistic growth outlook for France and Spain. Also revised upwards, was growth in India and China — which accounted for close to half of global growth. The Fund sees the Chinese economy growing 5.0% in 2024 — a 0.4 percentage points upgrade from its April forecast — and India growing 7.0% after a 0.2 percentage points upwards revision, Words of wisdom for EMs: “In emerging markets and developing economies, recent policy divergences highlight the need to manage the risks of currency and capital flow volatility. Given that economic fundamentals remain the main factor in USD appreciation, the appropriate response is to allow the exchange rate to adjust, while using monetary policy to keep inflation close to target,” the report read. The inflation outlook: “We project global inflation will slow to 5.9% this year from 6.7% last year, broadly on track for a soft landing. But in some advanced economies, especially the United States, progress on disinflation has slowed, and risks are to the upside,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blogpost. MARKETS THIS MORNING- Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning, with the ASX 200 up, the Nikkei and Hang Seng flat, and both the Kospi and Shanghai Composite in the red. Futures for major US and European equities benchmarks were largely unchanged overnight. ADX9,156+0.1% (YTD: -4.4%)DFM4,110-0.1% (YTD: +1.2%)Nasdaq Dubai UAE203,559+0.4% (YTD: -7.4%)USD : AED CBUAEBuy 3.67Sell 3.67EIBOR5.0% o/n5.1% 1 yrTASI12,080+1.1% (YTD: +0.9%)EGX3027,829-0.4% (YTD: +11.8%)S&P 5005,667+0.6% (YTD: +18.8%)FTSE 1008,165-0.2% (YTD: +5.6%)Euro Stoxx 504,948-0.7% (YTD: +9.4%)Brent crude USD 83.73-1.3%Natural gas (Nymex) USD 2.18-0.2%GoldUSD 2,473+0.2%BTCUSD 64,700+1.4% (YTD: +53.1%)THE CLOSING BELL-The ADX rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.4 bn. The index is down 4.4% YTD.In the green: Commercial Bank International (+9.3%), Agility Global (+8.8%) and Aram Group (+7.3%).In the red: Oman and Emirates Investment Holding (-4.8%), Rak Co. for White Cement and Construction Materials (-3.5%) and Gulf Cement (-3.5%). Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.1% on turnover of AED 369.7 mn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai closed up 0.4%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its 2024 growth forecast for the UAE to 4% in its latest end of mission statement, following its visit to the UAE earlier this month. The fund had previously penciled in 3.5% growth for 2024 in its World Economic Update report in April.The IMF’s revised prediction comes on the back of increased domestic activity in tourism, construction, and financial services sectors, as well as foreign demand for real estate and improved bilateral ties “adding to ample domestic liquidity” by driving housing prices and rentals up.The UAE’s diversification away from oil is also to thank, with accelerated public and private investments and reforms in areas such as renewable energy and technology expected to boost growth further, and buffer against geopolitical shocks, the IMF said. Still, an increased hydrocarbon GDP is expected to contribute to economic growth, driven by higher crude oil production from the UAE’s OPEC+ quota increase.The IMF predicts inflation will trend close to 2.0% in 2024, representing a slight downward revision from the 2.1% annual inflation rate it had forecasted for 2024 back in April. The fund expects the UAE’s current account surplus to come in at 9% this year — a few notches above the 7.8% that was projected in April due to high oil prices. The general government surplus is projected to land at 5% of GDP by the year’s end, while public debt is slated to decline to 30% with active debt management strategies.

President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq met yesterday at Qasr Al Watan in Abu Dhabi, where they discussed strengthening bilateral relations and recent regional developments, state news agency Wam reported. Officials from the two countries inked MoUs to boost investments, as well as cooperation on renewables, sustainability, railways, tech, and education, Wam reported separately. The two leaders promised to explore further economic prospects, and emphasized the “impenetrable fortress” that is the GCC in the face of regional and global challenges. REMEMBER- Etihad Rail and Oman Rail signed an agreement late 2022 to create The Oman and Etihad Rail Company, which is co-owned by Oman and the UAE’s governments and yields USD 3 bn in capital slated for the design, development, and operation of railways linking Oman’s Sohar Port with the UAE’s national railway network. The transport link between the UAE and Oman, first announced in September, is aimed at bolstering trade between the two countries and the region. The rail line will serve both passenger and freight trains.The UAE denied its involvement in any “form of aggression or destabilization” in Sudan, dispelling such claims as “disinformation and false narratives,” the UAE’s Permanent Representative to the UN Mohamed Abushahab said in a statement to the UN Security Council on Sunday. The UAE mission’s letter came in response to a statement delivered by the Sudanese permanent representative to the Security Council last Friday, accusing the UAE of supporting the Rapid Support Forces, an accusation the UAE rejected as “spurious” and “unfounded.”The UAE stressed its ongoing commitment to supporting efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution in Sudan and that the Sudanese delegation’s accusation only serves to “deflect responsibility and undermine international efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in Sudan.” IN OTHER DIPLOMACY NEWS- Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi’s deputy ruler and national security adviser, met with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Jassim Al-Thani to discuss strengthening bilateral ties. (Statement)