Good morning, friends, and happy almost-FRIDAY. We have a very macro-focused issue for you this morning as the news cycle slows from earlier this week. S&P Global assigned its first sovereign credit rating to the whole of the UAE, while separately laying out the risks of the war on the GCC’s funding flows and banking sector. PLUS: UBS’ Global Wealth Report shows the UAE was the second-fastest growing destination for USD m’naires last year.

AND- The Central Bank of the UAE kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row, in line with the US Federal Reserve’s move in its meeting yesterday, according to a statement (pdf). The base rate applicable to the overnight deposit facility remains at 4.4%, while the rate applicable to borrowing short-term liquidity was kept at 50 bps above the base rate for all standing credit facilities. We have more on the Fed’s decision in Planet Finance, below.

WEATHER- Dubai will see an afternoon high of 41°C — though it will feel like 56°C — before cooling down to an overnight low of 31°C. Abu Dhabi will be slightly milder, with a daytime peak of 35°C and overnight lows of 31°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Al Habtoor plans to list its hospitality division on the DFM: Al Habtoor Group is planning an initial public offering (IPO) of its hotel management arm, Habtoor Hospitality, on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), Emarat Al Youm quotes the group’s founder and chairman, Khalaf Al Habtoor, as saying. The group said it was considering an IPO for its hotel management unit in February, and reports of a listing were also circulating as far back as 2012 but it was ultimately postponed.

More details like the size of the listing will come after the summer, Al Habtoor said, with no information yet on the expected size of the listing. The group may also consider a listing on other exchanges later on.

The portfolio: Al Habtoor Hospitality’s offerings in Dubai include Hilton Dubai Al Habtoor City, Waldorf Astoria Palm Jumeirah, Metropolitan Hotel, and V Hotel by Hilton, among others. The operator’s international offerings include properties in Budapest, London, Vienna, and the US.

#2- The UAE and Saudi Arabia are on track to be reclassified as developed markets and removed from the Emerging-Markets Bond Index (EMBI) on the back of financial and economic progress characterized by low sovereign risk, tight price spreads, and market maturity, Mashal Al Faras, the head of Middle East, Africa, and Asia at Janus Henderson, told Khaleej Times. Earlier this year, JPMorgan reclassified Qatar and Kuwait as developed markets, seeing the two also move from their emerging-markets bond index (EMBI).

REMEMBER- JPMorgan said earlier this year that the UAE's cost of living ratio has exceeded the EM index threshold for two years in a row — and, if it does so for a third consecutive year, the country would no longer be eligible for the EMBI series, triggering a review and a potential reclassification as a developed market.

What this means: Reclassifying the UAE and Saudi Arabia will attract a broader segment of investors and support their global standing, Al Faras said. It would also better reflect their economic standing and market maturity, he added.

#3- DMT rolls out AI-powered building permit platform: Abu Dhabi now has a digital platform for building permits called Binaa, which reduces permit processing times by 70% , according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The AI-powered platform automates plan reviews, and features building information modeling and virtual and augmented reality for enhanced inspections, the statement said. will receive support from the Abu Dhabi Civil Defense Authority, TAQA, and e&.

What’s next? Binaa’s first phase will focus on new private villa projects, which represent approximately 20k permit applications annually.

#4- CBUAE to offer AED 29.4 bn in M-bills at next auction: The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) will offer up to AED 29.4 bn in monetary bills at its upcoming auction on Monday, 23 June, according to a statement (pdf). The offering includes a 28-day tap issuance worth up to AED 4.1 bn, and new issuances of AED 2.1 bn with an 84 day-tenor, AED 3.2 bn with a 168-day tenor, and AED 20 bn with a 336-days tenor. All bills will settle on 25 June.

Decoding central bank speak: M-bills are short-term, zero-coupon securities issued in AED with typical maturities of one to 12 months. They are sold via competitive tenders to licensed dealers and are not listed for public trading. A tap issuance allows the CBUAE to reopen an existing line to manage liquidity without launching a new series.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Real estate transactions in Dubai worth over AED 10 mn rose 31% y-o-y in 1Q 2025, according to Savills’ Dubai Prime Residential 2025 report (pdf). The segment has grown tenfold since 2020, with transactions over AED 10 mn rising from 469 pre-pandemic to 4.7k last year. Villas made up 70% of the sales and off-plan transactions accounted for 69% of the total, while areas like Palm Jumeirah and District One saw the most high value transactions.

Looking ahead: Savills expects the market to grow another 8-10% in 2025, buoyed by wealth migration, new master planned communities, and Dubai’s continued ranking as a global hub for lifestyle-led residences.

#2- The Dubai Multi Commodities Center (DMCC) recorded a 7% increase in US companies joining its business district over the past year, according to the Dubai Media Office. The freezone now hosts approximately 45% of the estimated 1.5k American businesses operating in the UAE.

#3- GCC markets top Dubai Chamber members' 1Q 2025 export destinations: Dubai Commerce of Chamber members recorded AED 85.9 bn in exports and re-exports during 1Q 2025, representing 16.8% y-o-y growth, state news agency Wam reports. GCC countries accounted for 47.2% of total trade volume, valued at AED 40.5 bn.

The breakdown: Middle Eastern markets outside the GCC ranked second with a 29.1% share valued at AED 25 bn, followed by Africa at AED 9.1 bn, or 10.6%. The Asia-Pacific region contributed 9.4% (AED 8 bn), while Europe accounted for AED 2.4 bn (2.8%). North and Latin American markets represented less than 1% combined.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

On day six of the war between Israel and Iran, concern is rising that the US is preparing to join the war. Adding to the speculation, US President Donald Trump said that he had not made a final decision on whether he will strike the country, telling reporters, “I may do it, I may not.” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made his first appearance since Friday to respond to an increasingly hawkish Trump, warning the US president that their involvement in the conflict would “undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.” (Financial Times | Associated Press | New York Times)

While over in the business press, all eyes were on the US Federal Reserve, which decided to hold interest rates steady for the fourth meeting running despite increasing pressure from the Trump administration to change course. Chair Jerome Powell doubled down on the reserve’s position that they will wait to assess the full impact of the tariffs on US imports before “considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” We have more on the Fed’s decision in this morning’s Planet Finance section, below. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal)

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OIL WATCH-

Brent crude's premium to Dubai soars: Brent crude’s premium to Middle Eastern benchmark Dubai widened above USD 3/bbl yesterday — its highest since September 2023 — amid fears of supply disruptions following the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, Reuters reports, citing LSEG data and market sources. The Brent-Dubai Exchange Futures for Swaps (EFS) for August settled at a USD 3.33 premium, the newswire added, citing three oil brokers.

The EFS spread is also widening due to expectations of higher Opec exports, and the overnight jump in Brent Crude on Tuesday, LSEG senior oil analyst Emirl Jamil told the newswire.

Brent’s first-month futures contract is now trading at its highest premium to the six-month contract in nearly two years. This market structure — where near-term prices are higher than later prices, known as backwardation — reflects concerns about supply tightness.

Dubai crude has also gained ground, with prices reaching their highest premium in more than two months this week, while shipping costs to move oil from the Middle East to Asia have risen. Potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes, remains a key concern for market participants.